Hotter 2026 and El Nino could trigger extreme fires
More than 150 million hectares — over twice the size of Texas — burned globally in the first months of 2026. With a high chance
More than 150 million hectares — over twice the size of Texas — burned globally in the first months of 2026. With a high chance of a supercharged El Nino, the second half of the year could be even worse. The world could see a "particularly severe year" of wildfires fueled by climate change and a potentially strong El Nino weather phenomenon after a record-breaking first few months of 2026, researchers warned Tuesday. "This year the global fire season has got off to a very fast start," said Theodore Keeping, an extreme weather researcher at Imperial College London, who is part of World Weather Attribution (WWA), a network of climate scientists. Wildfires have scorched 50% more than the average for this time of year, and the current area burnt by wildfires globally is more than 20% higher than the previous record set since tracking began in 2012, he said. Record-breaking burn areas have been observed in almost all countries in West Africa and the Sahel region. "Overall, 85 million hectares [around 328,000 square miles] have burned in Africa this year, compared to the previous record of 69 million hectares," Keeping said. Heavy rain provides more fuel for wildfires later on During the last growing season, these areas received unusually high seasonal rainfall, fueling grass growth that then served as kindling for fires. "In addition, the severe droughts and heat waves we've seen over the last few months have meant that fires are more likely to occur in lusher, generally less fire-prone areas," Keeping added. Hydroclimate whiplash is the rapid transition between opposite weather extremes Image: Amilton Neves/REUTERS This swing from wet to dry, called "hydroclimate whiplash," is increasing in West Africa, he said.
The other major contributor to the global fire season has been Asia, with massive wildfire outbreaks in India, Southeast Asia and northeastern China. Asian wildfires have so far burned nearly 40% more than the previous record year. The US and Australia have also experienced unseasonably high burnt areas so far in 2026. Scientists predict a 'super' El Nino for 2026 This all comes before a potential "super" El Nino that's expected to hit later this year. The El Nino weather phenomenon is the warm phase of a natural climate pattern in the Pacific Ocean and trade winds that affects global weather. Forecasts say that there is a 61% chance that El Nino will emerge during the May-July period and stay at least until the end of the year, if not longer. "The likelihood of harmful extreme fires potentially could be the highest we've seen in recent history if a strong El Nino does develop," Keeping said. That is truly alarming, particularly from a health perspective, says Jemilah Mahmood, a medical doctor and executive director of the Sunway Center for Planetary Health at Sunway University in Malaysia. "Wildfire smoke is not ordinary pollution," she said, adding that the fine particulate matter (PM2.5) from fire smoke could be 10 times more harmful to health than that from traffic emissions. A 2024 study by British medical journal The Lancet found 1.5 million deaths every year were linked to air pollution. The study said the number of deaths was expected to increase in the coming years as climate change leads to more frequent and intense wildfires.
The BriefWire