Extreme climate scenario fades, but warming continues

Published 7 June 2026 · india

The rapid rollout of renewable energy is helping to shift emissions trends, but expected temperature rises remain high as the UN moves to tighten countries'

The rapid rollout of renewable energy is helping to shift emissions trends, but expected temperature rises remain high as the UN moves to tighten countries' commitments. For years, a worst-case climate scenario served as a stark warning of what could happen if the world failed to curb fossil fuel use. A temperature rise of more than 4 degrees Celsius (7.2 degrees Fahrenheit) by the end of the century would bring with it catastrophic consequences, including deadly heat waves, rising seas, crop failures and mass displacement. But a scientific paper published in April says that doomsday pathway — known as RCP8.5 and later SSP5-8.5 — is now less probable. Designed as a benchmark to help governments prepare for dangerous possibilities, the worst-case scenario was not a prediction. Climate researcher Detlef Van Vuuren, lead author of the new paper, told UK-based climate science platform Carbon Brief that it had always been a "low-probability, high-risk scenario." It reflected the knowledge and energy trends of the late 2000s, when the world was more reliant on burning planet-heating coal, oil and gas. But those trends have now changed. The world is not heading toward the worst-case scenario "because we've actually taken political measures allowing us to move away from that," French climate scientist Christophe Cassou told the AFP news agency.

The rapid growth of renewable energy is helping shift emissions trends away from the most dire heating scenario Image: Caleb Jones/AP Photo/picture alliance The new assessment attributes the shift to renewable energy build-out happening faster than expected, with many governments adopting policies that have slowed projected emissions growth. Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College London, said the worst-case scenario had "assumed humanity would continue an unchecked coal-driven fossil fuel boom, which fortunately did not happen." While acknowledging that as "fundamentally good news," she urged that it "should by no means lead to complacency." Climate skeptics seize on revised scenario US President Donald Trump seized on the revision to claim climate scientists had been "wrong," fueling attacks on climate science from skeptics and politicians in both the United States and Europe. The far-right Alternative for Germany is among them. The AfD used the new narrative to argue for a rollback of the country's climate policies during a parliamentary debate on Wednesday. Niklas Höhne, executive director and founder of Germany's NewClimate Institute, described that play as "a blatant diversionary tactic by climate deniers and the far right." As the world is in the thick of another energy crisis, he said fossil fuel defenders "will stop at nothing to fabricate a supposed scandal with outrageous arguments and divert attention from the real problems." Debate over the revised climate scenario has intensified political divisions over how seriously governments should respond to global warming Image: Imago Images/ZUMA Press/C.