US or Iran: Who will win the Hormuz endurance game?

Published 7 June 2026 · finance

Tehran is betting that its sanctions‑hardened economy can outlast the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Washington, meanwhile, is contending with elevated oil prices, renewed inflation pressure

Tehran is betting that its sanctions‑hardened economy can outlast the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Washington, meanwhile, is contending with elevated oil prices, renewed inflation pressure and rising global recession risks. Deadlocked, dysfunctional and dangerous: That is how the Strait of Hormuz standoff is increasingly being described. Now approaching its fourth month, the crisis off the coast of Iran is marked by mutual blockades. Tehran has been charging ships up to $2 million (€1.73 million) for safe passage through the strait, while the United States has imposed a naval embargo, turning back vessels carrying Iranian oil exports. These competing blockades have failed to deliver decisive results. Some Iranian ships continue to slip through, while several Asian shipping firms have agreed to pay tolls, despite such fees violating international maritime law. Fragile negotiations between the US and Iran to reopen Hormuz have, meanwhile, stalled several times, sparking the risk of escalation into a wider regional conflict. Which side will fold first? Despite Pakistan-led mediation efforts and a proposed one-page memorandum aimed at ending hostilities and reopening Hormuz, neither side appears ready to blink first. Dania Thafer, executive director of the Washington-based think tank Gulf International Forum, believes US President Donald Trump's on-off military threats — intended to increase its leverage over Iran — may have backfired. "The Iranian response suggests the opposite," she told DW. "They interpret it as the US lacking the will to escalate the war." Trump faces increasing pressure both at home and abroad to avoid further military action, with Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar urging restraint.

Surging oil prices and rising domestic inflation are adding political heat ahead of the US midterm elections in November. Can Iran control flow of data along with flow of oil? To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Iran's oil revenues depleting fast Iran, meanwhile, is losing some $435 million (about €375 million) per day in trade, nearly two-thirds of which comes from exports of mainly crude oil, Miad Maleki, a senior fellow at the conservative Washington-based Foundation for Defense of Democracies, estimated in April. This means that with the US blockade stretching to 39 days on Friday, Iran's public finances have already suffered an estimated $17 billion loss. According to Maleki, this is in addition to around $144 billion in economic damage caused by US-Israeli strikes in the first weeks of the war. Burcu Ozcelik, a senior research fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute, thinks Iran may have gained "outsized leverage" through its missile attacks on shipping and Gulf neighbors, but it is now being "hit hard" by the disruption to its own oil exports. "Despite Tehran's bluster about regime resilience, its economy is not blockade-proof," Ozcelik told DW. Gulf states caught in the crossfire Experts describe the standoff as a dangerous waiting game. Both the US and Iran believe they have time on their side. However, the Gulf states are far more risk-averse and economically exposed. Their frustration with the deadlock has hardened into coordinated pressure for a diplomatic breakthrough.