Armenia, once Russia's reliable ally, considers an EU future

Published 7 June 2026 · politics

Armenians are set to vote on the country's future geopolitical direction on June 7. The election will be a test of public opinion in the

Armenians are set to vote on the country's future geopolitical direction on June 7. The election will be a test of public opinion in the long-standing Russia ally, where the population is increasingly eyeing the EU. Citizens of Armenia are not only electing a new Assembly on Sunday: They are also voting on the future geopolitical direction of the country. On the table is either rapid EU integration or a return to Russia's sphere of influence. A preelection survey commissioned by the Washington based NGO International Republican Institute (IRI) puts Civil Contract, led by pro-EU Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, in first place, with 32% of respondents saying they would vote for the party. The opposition traditionally has more pro-Russian views and is represented by three major forces that currently lag far behind the ruling party, according to the poll results. Some 7% of voters said they would support the "Strong Armenia" bloc run by a Russian billionaire of Armenian origin Samvel Karapetyan. He is currently under house arrest in Yerevan on charges of inciting a violent power grab as he publicly supported the Armenian Apostolic Church amid a bitter conflict between the church leaders and Prime Minister Pashinyan. The political grouping "Armenia Alliance”, led by former president Robert Kocharyan who is reportedly a friend of Russian leader Vladimir Putin, is expected to garner 4% of the votes. The "Prosperous Armenia" party founded by business mogul Gagik Tsarukyan can likely count on the support of 2% of the Armenian citizens. Tsarukyan’s party is officially partnered with Russia's ruling 'United Russia' party. Armenia looks to EU after decades of relying on Russia To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video The remaining five political parties, including some new protest projects, are only polling around 1-2%. Experts warn that these numbers should be treated carefully given the unprecedentedly low response rate with only 16% of respondents agreeing to participate in the poll.

That is 19 percentage points lower than ahead of in the 2021 snap election. At the same time 92% of participants expressed their willingness to vote compared to 72% in 2021. Almost one in two respondents declined to name their favorite candidate or said they have not yet reached a final decision on how to vote. However, other polls showed different results, giving Pashinyan’s "Civil Contract" party between roughly 26 and 34 per cent, suggesting it could have a slightly narrower lead against the opposition. The new political vector: Brussels or Moscow? The pivotal issue in the election campaign is international affairs. The ruling party has moved closer towards the European Union, gradually distancing itself from Russia and the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) — a military alliance overseen by the Kremlin. In May 2025, Armenian parliament adopted a law to launch the process of joining the EU. During the ongoing election campaign, Nikol Pashinyan promised to secure a visa-free regime with Europe within the next two years. In early May, Pashinyan hosted the European Political Community Summit in the Armenian capital Yerevan. At the press conference after the summit, he pointed out that his country “is no ally of Russia's” when it comes to its war against Ukraine. This rhetoric prompted a harsh reaction in Moscow. At the end of May, President Vladimir Putin threatened to impose tariffs on Armenia and build new legal obstacles for its citizens willing to work in Russia. He, alongside with other members of The Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), suggested that Armenia hold a referendum on whether it wants to join the EU or remain part of the EAEU. As Russia remains the largest market for Armenian agricultural produce, Moscow has tried to use its trade relations with Yerevan as leverage. Prior to the elections, Russia's Federal Service for Veterinary and Phytosanitary Supervision applied multiple restrictions on Armenian imported products including vegetables, berries, wine, flowers and fish under an excuse of alleged violations of sanitary norms.