Can OPEC+ still control oil prices? Iran war puts cartel's power on the line - Moneycontrol.com

Published 7 June 2026 · world

According to OPEC+ estimates, the group's output has fallen to around 33 million barrels per day from nearly 43 million barrels per day before the

According to OPEC+ estimates, the group's output has fallen to around 33 million barrels per day from nearly 43 million barrels per day before the conflict intensified. Crude output from OPEC's 11 current members fell by 1.22 million barrels per day in May to 16.33 million barrels per day, the lowest level in at least 37 years. OPEC+ plans a modest quota hike but faces limited market impact Geopolitical conflicts and shipping issues disrupt oil supply UAE exit and further departures threaten OPEC+ unity Did our AI summary help? As OPEC+ ministers meet on June 7 to review production policy, the oil-producing alliance faces a stark reality - its ability to influence global oil prices has been weakened by the conflict involving Iran, Israel and the United States. The group is widely expected to approve another modest increase in production quotas of about 188,000 barrels per day, extending a series of gradual output hikes announced in recent months. Under normal circumstances, such a move would signal OPEC+'s intent to ease supply concerns and cool prices. This time, however, geopolitics is overshadowing production policy. The conflict has disrupted energy flows across the Persian Gulf and intensified concerns over the Strait of Hormuz, the critical waterway through which roughly 20 million barrels of oil and petroleum products move each day. Any disruption to traffic through the Strait has immediate consequences for global energy markets, and traders are paying far more attention to developments in the Gulf than to OPEC+ quotas. "Any announced production increases or changes to output targets will have limited practical value," Ole Hansen, commodities strategist at Saxo Bank, told AFP, further adding, "There is very little OPEC can do".

Analysts say the core problem is that higher quotas do not automatically translate into higher exports. Shipping disruptions, security risks and sanctions-related restrictions have constrained the movement of crude across the region, limiting the effectiveness of OPEC+'s traditional supply-management tools. Jorge Leon, senior vice president at Rystad Energy, expects the alliance to proceed with another 188,000-barrel-per-day increase, similar to recent adjustments. But he noted that geopolitical developments continue to dominate market sentiment. The scale of the disruption is evident in production data. According to OPEC+ estimates, the group's output has fallen to around 33 million barrels per day from nearly 43 million barrels per day before the conflict intensified. Analysts believe actual supply may be even lower because of restrictions on Iranian exports and broader disruptions affecting Gulf producers. "The US blockade on Iranian ports means production and exports are likely even lower than official estimates suggest," Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, told AFP. Data compiled by Bloomberg highlights the scale of the disruption. Crude output from OPEC's 11 current members fell by 1.22 million barrels per day in May to 16.33 million barrels per day, the lowest level in at least 37 years. The figures exclude the United Arab Emirates, which exited OPEC last month after six decades of membership. Iran accounted for more than half of the decline. Its production dropped by 710,000 barrels per day to 2.34 million barrels per day, a five-year low, as tighter restrictions on maritime traffic and the US blockade weighed on exports.