Elon Musk flags India's fertility decline after report shows birth rate below replacement level

Published 6 June 2026 · local

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has drawn attention to India's falling fertility rate, noting that the country's birth rate has now dropped below the replacement level

SpaceX CEO Elon Musk has drawn attention to India's falling fertility rate, noting that the country's birth rate has now dropped below the replacement level. “India’s birth rate has fallen below replacement. Among those most educated, India’s birth rate fell below replacement many years ago,” Musk wrote in a post on X on Saturday (June 6). Musk was responding to data shared by media outlet AF Post, which reported that India’s Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has declined from 2.3 births per woman to 1.9 over the past decade, marking the first time in the country’s history that fertility has fallen below the replacement threshold. What the data shows According to AF Post, which cited a June 4 article by The Economist, India’s fertility decline has been rapid and widespread. The report found that only six states—Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Jharkhand—continue to record fertility rates above the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman.

Delhi recorded the country’s lowest fertility rate at 1.2, lower than that of Finland. The national TFR currently stands at 1.9. Understanding the replacement rate The replacement fertility rate of 2.1 is widely regarded as the level required for a population to replace itself from one generation to the next in the absence of migration. Demographers warn that if fertility remains below this level for an extended period, population growth eventually slows and can ultimately lead to population decline, alongside challenges such as an ageing population and a shrinking workforce. Sharp regional differences The report highlighted significant regional variations in fertility trends across India. Bihar recorded the slowest decline in fertility over the past decade and remains one of the states above replacement level. In contrast, Delhi and Tamil Nadu experienced some of the sharpest declines despite already having relatively low fertility rates.

The findings underscore the growing demographic divide between India’s northern and southern regions, with fertility rates falling fastest in more urbanised and economically developed areas. UNFPA confirms declining fertility The trend was also reflected in the United Nations Population Fund’s (UNFPA) 2025 State of World Population Report. According to the report, India’s total fertility rate has declined to 1.9 births per woman, below the replacement level of 2.1. The UNFPA noted that while fertility has fallen substantially, India remains home to more than 1.46 billion people and continues to face significant social and economic inequalities. “Although its fertility rate has declined over the years, India has a population of well over a billion, and wide inequalities persist, despite significant improvements in health and education,” the UNFPA said. The agency added that maternal mortality, gender discrimination, early marriage and adolescent pregnancies remain pressing challenges in parts of the country.