Odds of a ‘super El Niño’ increase, adding to fears of extreme weather around the world

Key points

• One of the most powerful El Niño events ever recorded could form in the coming months, according to new forecasts, raising concerns about global temperatures, hurricanes, drought conditions and other extremes this year.
• For several months, forecasters have been predicting a possible “super El Niño” that could emerge and persist through the end of 2026. New forecasts this week from the Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts show those odds are increasing.
• An El Niño event is characterized by warmer-than-usual sea surface temperatures in parts of the Pacific Ocean.
• This natural climate pattern tends to boost global temperatures and can influence weather conditions around the world.
• El Niño events typically exacerbate background warming from human-caused climate change, increasing the likelihood of hotter-than-normal global temperatures.