A delayed monsoon, an emerging El Nino and the long shadow of India’s Great Famine

Key points

• The year was 1876. Monsoon failed, crops withered and one of the deadliest famines in Indian history began to unfold.
• Over the next two years, the Great Famine linked to a powerful El Nino event claimed an estimated 55 lakh to 82 lakh lives across the country.
• Nearly 150 years later, as scientists watch another potentially strong El Nino take shape in the Pacific, memories of that catastrophe are resurfacing as a reminder of how deeply shifts in the climate system can reshape life on land.
• The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast a 10% deficit in southwest monsoon rainfall from the Long Period Average this year.
• Monsoon is expected to reach Telangana by June 10. According to the IMD, ENSO-neutral conditions in the equatorial Pacific are transitioning towards El Nino conditions.