Is the war in Ukraine escalating?

Key points

• The story so far With the war on Iran destabilising the global economy, the war in Ukraine seemed to have slipped off the news headlines.
• However, recent developments indicate that the war is escalating into a more dangerous and highly volatile phase.
• In May 2026, with ground operations at a stalemate and forward movement stalled on both sides, Russia and Ukraine launched long-range aerial campaigns on each other.
• Both sides began targeting each other’s civilian infrastructure.
• Ukraine scaled up its drone attacks to strike deep into Russian territory and targeted Russian economic lifelines, specifically oil refineries like the Ilsky and Novoshakhtinsk facilities as well as military logistics hubs.