Odds of a Fed hike this year jump on prediction markets

Key points

• The Federal Reserve logo is visible on the William McChesney Martin Jr.
• Building on December 9, 2025 in Washington, DC.
• Those odds come after Friday's report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed nonfarm payrolls hit 172,000, comfortably exceeding Dow Jones expectations of 80,000. A Fed hike before July 2027 also jumped from 54% to 65% in the past week on Kalshi.
• Chances that the Federal Reserve increases interest rates this year shot up from 25.3% to 52% in the last week on prediction markets platform Kalshi.
• Fed rates increasing mean the Federal Reserve raises interest rates to stop the economy from overheating.