Monsoon 2026 has arrived, but India’s rain season begins under El Niño shadow
Monsoon 2026 has finally reached Kerala, but the bigger question is what happens next as El Niño builds over the Pacific and India faces the
Monsoon 2026 has finally reached Kerala, but the bigger question is what happens next as El Niño builds over the Pacific and India faces the risk of below-normal rainfall. The Southwest Monsoon began over the state on June 4, 2026, three days later than its normal date of 1 June and nine days later than the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecast date of May 26, 2026 with several weather threats looming ahead. The monsoon on June 4 had covered all of the state, Mahe and the Lakshadweep islands, and moved into parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, IMD said in a statement.
It also progressed across the Comorin area and large parts of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, including parts of the west-central, east-central and northeast Bay of Bengal. The monsoon winds are flowing into India at a time when the global threat of an El Niño looms. Many climate scientists expect it to be a super El Niño event, rivalling the strongest El Niño on record, between 1876 and 1878. Another threat from the northwest could come in the form of continued moisture-laden western disturbances, which could bring surprises similar to those seen in 2025.
The IMD has already predicted a below-normal rainfall season at 90 per cent of the long-period average (LPA), revising its earlier estimate of 92 per cent of LPA made in April. India’s LPA for the monsoon season is 868.6 millimetres for the June-September period, based on the average monsoon rainfall between 1971 and 2020. A season with 90 per cent of LPA would mean below-normal rainfall for the country, according to the IMD definition. The weather agency has also given a 60 per cent chance of a deficit or deficient southwest monsoon.
A deficient monsoon season would mean nationwide rainfall of 89 per cent of LPA or less. The spatial rainfall distribution map provided by the IMD also paints a grim picture, with most of the country showing chances of below-normal rainfall. The IMD’s distribution of rainfall over the country’s homogeneous regions also showed below-normal rains, with only the northeastern region predicted to receive normal rainfall, between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of LPA.
The BriefWire