Monsoon 2026 has arrived, but India’s rain season begins under El Niño shadow

Key points

• Monsoon 2026 has finally reached Kerala, but the bigger question is what happens next as El Niño builds over the Pacific and India faces the risk of below-normal rainfall.
• The Southwest Monsoon began over the state on June 4, 2026, three days later than its normal date of 1 June and nine days later than the India Meteorological Department’s (IMD) forecast date of May 26, 2026 with several weather threats looming ahead.
• The monsoon on June 4 had covered all of the state, Mahe and the Lakshadweep islands, and moved into parts of Karnataka and Tamil Nadu, IMD said in a statement.
• It also progressed across the Comorin area and large parts of the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, including parts of the west-central, east-central and northeast Bay of Bengal.
• The monsoon winds are flowing into India at a time when the global threat of an El Niño looms....