Iran changed the rules in Hormuz. The Gulf is changing the rules for Iran
Iran has used the war to gain leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. Now Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan are building a new security arrangement
Iran has used the war to gain leverage over the Strait of Hormuz. Now Saudi Arabia, Turkiye and Pakistan are building a new security arrangement that would limit how far Tehran can push its advantage. At dinner on the 44th floor of the Waldorf Astoria in Doha this week, no missiles crossed the skyline. No warning alerts interrupted the conversation. Traffic moved smoothly below, and the city lights glittered. This is what normal now looks like in Doha, Qatar. The city functions despite reduced energy exports, Iranian attacks and a war changing how Gulf governments defend themselves. More than five months into the conflict, the military tempo has slowed. The central dispute now is over who sets the rules in the Gulf. On Friday, a US official said Iran and Oman could soon reach an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Washington said it would lift its blockade of Iranian ports once commercial shipping resumed without impediments. Less than a day later, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps rejected Washington’s account. Reopening Hormuz, its spokesman said, depends on the United States accepting Iran’s conditions, not on an agreement with Oman. Oman has narrowed the dispute to a route through Hormuz. It has not settled who controls the territorial waters. Washington wants commercial vessels to move through an international waterway without Iranian permission or tolls. Tehran wants a settlement that preserves the leverage it gained by restricting passage. Negotiators have agreed on coordinates for a route through Hormuz, but Iran still seeks to control incoming traffic and impose transit fees, both of which Washington rejects.
The deal also has to work for the companies that move the ships. Owners need a guarantee that their vessels will not be attacked, detained or stranded in territorial waters. Insurers have to provide coverage. Iran’s demand for transit payments creates another problem: US persons and US-owned or controlled companies cannot pay Iran for safe passage without running afoul of US sanctions. Some war-risk policies can also terminate coverage when vessels pay certain Hormuz transit charges. If a vessel refuses to pay Tehran, it may be at risk. If it pays, its owner may face problems with its insurer or Washington. Diplomats can reopen Hormuz on paper. Captains have to reopen it at sea. Iran cannot match the United States militarily, but it has learned to shift the costs of conflict onto others. A restriction in Hormuz affects an insurance contract in London, a purchase of liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Qatar, an energy bill in Asia and eventually a political calculation in Washington. The same war that let Iran turn a shipping lane into a weapon is pushing Saudi Arabia to seek security alliances in addition to its defence agreements with Washington. By late March, Saudi data showed that Iran had launched more than 700 missiles and drones toward the kingdom. Saudi defences intercepted most, but Riyadh has spent months protecting cities, military facilities and energy infrastructure. Iran can also attack Saudi Arabia through armed proxies. From Yemen, the Houthis have renewed missile, drone and ground attacks and this week injured 11 civilians in the Najran region.
The BriefWire