Mecca Agreement | A new triple alliance in West Asia

Published 8 August 2026 · world

By the time Abdullah bin Saud succeeded his father as Emir of Diriyah (the first Saudi state) in 1814, Ottoman forces, under the command of

By the time Abdullah bin Saud succeeded his father as Emir of Diriyah (the first Saudi state) in 1814, Ottoman forces, under the command of Muhammad Ali Pasha, had already launched their military campaign against the al-Saud reign. The Ottomans sought to destroy the emirate and bring the Arabian Peninsula back under their control. They entered Hejaz by the sea and then marched into the heart of Nejd. In 1818, Ibrahim Pasha, Muhammad Ali’s son, reached Diriyah, the capital of the Emirate, and laid siege to the city until it surrendered. Abdullah, his three sons and two supporters were captured and taken to Cairo, before being transferred to Constantinople, where Sultan Mahmud II rejected a request for a pardon. In May 1819, the last Emir of the first Saudi state, along with his sons and supporters, was beheaded in a square near Hagia Sophia. The Ottoman invasion, however, did not prevent the Saudis from rebuilding the state the Pashas had destroyed. They established the second Saudi state later in the 19th century and, after its defeat, founded a third in the early 20th century. The third state, with British support, expanded its authority across much of the Arabian Peninsula, eventually giving rise to modern Saudi Arabia. The Ottoman Empire collapsed after the First World War, with the Republic of Turkey emerging as its successor. After the Second World War, both Turkiye and Saudi Arabia became close allies of the U.S., but relations between the two remained strained. Their historical rivalry and contest for influence in West Asia kept them at odds. Tensions deepened after Turkiye took an increasingly Islamist turn under Recep Tayyip Erdogan in the 21st century. When Turkiye supported the Arab Spring protests of 2010-2011, Saudi Arabia viewed the uprisings as a threat to political stability. Relations deteriorated further after Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi dissident, was killed inside the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018.

The kingdom and the republic also found themselves on opposing sides in several regional conflicts, most notably in Libya. But this rivalry has begun to melt away in recent years, as West Asia has witnessed a series of balance-shifting developments. On August 7, 2026, Saudi Arabia and Turkiye turned a page in their long and often fraught relationship by formally entering into a trilateral defence agreement with Pakistan. Under the Mecca Agreement, signed in the Saudi holy city by Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, Turkish President Erdogan and Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, the three countries pledged to strengthen “collective defence” and “collective deterrence”, and to treat an armed attack against any one of them as an attack against all three. In search of strategic depth A NATO-style collective security alliance bringing together three major Muslim-majority countries — a nuclear-armed South Asian power, an oil-rich Persian Gulf monarchy and a NATO ally that straddles West Asia and Europe — is something West Asia has not seen before. According to a joint statement issued by the Pakistani Foreign Ministry, all three countries had been involved in negotiations for a year. In September 2025, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia signed a Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement committing themselves to treat any act of aggression against one as an act against both. The Saudi-Pakistan agreement showed both Saudi Arabia’s deepening strategic vulnerability and Pakistan’s increasing appetite to play a larger security role in an increasingly volatile region. Now, with the addition of Turkiye, the alliance is seeking strategic depth and military muscle. Each member of the alliance brings its own strengths and vulnerabilities. Pakistan is the Muslim world’s only nuclear power, but its economy is struggling to stay afloat. Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest oil exporters, has deep pockets but faces daunting security challenges, particularly from Iran and the Houthis. Turkiye has a rapidly expanding military industrial base, including advanced drone-production capabilities, but is worried about Israel’s growing militarism in its neighbourhood.