Mecca Joint Defence Agreement: If India launches another Operation Sindoor, will Saudi and Turkey fight for Pakistan?
The new defence agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan has raised a difficult question for India: if New Delhi carries out another Operation Sindoor-style
The new defence agreement between Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Pakistan has raised a difficult question for India: if New Delhi carries out another Operation Sindoor-style strike against Pakistan, would Riyadh and Ankara come to Islamabad's military aid? The Mecca Joint Defence Agreement, signed in Mecca on Friday, says an armed attack against any one of the three countries will be regarded as an attack against all three. The pact also seeks to strengthen defence cooperation and collective deterrence. But the wording does not automatically mean that Saudi Arabia or Turkey would go to war with India if Indian forces strike Pakistan. The agreement's precise military obligations, including what form assistance would take and who decides how to respond, have not been publicly detailed. That distinction could become crucial if India and Pakistan enter another military confrontation. What would happen if India strikes Pakistan again? The biggest question would be whether an Indian operation is treated by the three countries as an "armed attack" covered by the pact. During Operation Sindoor, Pakistan received military and diplomatic support from China and Turkey.
The new agreement could now institutionalise some of the security cooperation that existed between Pakistan and its partners, but it does not automatically change the military balance between India and Pakistan. Asli Aydintasbas, a fellow at the Brookings Institution, has argued that the agreement is primarily intended to strengthen regional deterrence rather than expand the scope of wars, according to a BBC report. She has also said Turkey and Pakistan see themselves as countries that promote regional stability. A Turkish official described the pact as "purely defensive" and said it was not directed against any particular country. The official added that the agreement remained open to other regional states and did not replace existing bilateral or multilateral defence arrangements. Would Turkey attack India? Ankara openly supported Pakistan during the 2025 India-Pakistan conflict, and analysts have pointed to its longstanding defence relationship with Islamabad. Brahma Chellaney, a strategic affairs expert, has argued that Turkey's support during Operation Sindoor demonstrated its willingness to back Pakistan during an India-Pakistan conflict, the BBC report further mentioned. The new treaty could therefore make Ankara's political and military support for Islamabad more structured.
The BriefWire