Will the US-Iran war and Hormuz deadlock last for months?

Published 6 August 2026 · world

As diplomatic tracks intersect with a rigid US naval blockade and explicit threats of escalation, experts analyse the obstacles blocking a lasting agreement. The war

As diplomatic tracks intersect with a rigid US naval blockade and explicit threats of escalation, experts analyse the obstacles blocking a lasting agreement. The war between the United States, Israel and Iran has entered a critical juncture, with uncertainty about the future of the conflict leaving international markets and regional stability hanging in the balance. A memorandum of understanding signed on June 17 between Iran and the US had paused a war, which began on February 28, but the truce has since collapsed. Central to this protracted crisis is the strategic chokepoint of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran enforced a near-total closure of the waterway when fighting broke out again, disrupting global oil and liquefied natural gas exports and sending energy prices soaring. With indirect diplomatic tracks – notably mediated through Oman – now attempting to secure a temporary 60-day transit route, fundamental disagreements regarding sovereignty and regional security threaten to prolong the current deadlock for months. Wall of steel and decapitation On the ground, the US continues to maintain an aggressive posture. US Central Command (CENTCOM) recently reported redirecting 48 commercial vessels, boarding two and disabling two others as part of its strict naval blockade on Iran. US President Donald Trump described this as an unyielding “wall of steel”, demanding total surrender by Tehran or a comprehensive deal before easing the pressure.

Trump explicitly warned Tehran that current negotiations represent its “last chance before decapitation“. However, the US Treasury concurrently removed sanctions on three IRGC-linked airlines, sending Tehran mixed signals about Washington’s intent. Negar Mortazavi, a senior fellow at the Center for International Policy, told Al Jazeera that Iran is carefully weighing Washington’s vulnerabilities, including depleted missile stockpiles and the political cost of the war ahead of the US midterm elections in November. “Trump’s warning is therefore more likely to be seen in Tehran as psychological pressure designed to force concessions than as an imminent threat of a decapitation strike, while the risk of military escalation cannot be ruled out,” she said. “Tehran sees a familiar pattern in Trump’s approach. If Iran backs down, he is likely to increase pressure and demand more concessions. But if Iran holds firm and shows a willingness to escalate, Tehran may calculate that Trump will eventually step back because real constraints exist.” Mortazavi noted that the Omani-brokered pause takes some of the immediate pressure off Iran and allows it to test Washington’s intentions without surrendering its position in the Strait of Hormuz. The Omani channel Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei has explicitly denied direct negotiations are taking place with the US but did confirm that talks with Oman have been under way for two months to establish a temporary safe transit route that utilises both Iranian and Omani territorial waters.