Will Russia start a fresh mobilization drive?

Published 5 August 2026 · world

Russian authorities are planning to "expand mobilization" in autumn this year, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said, citing intelligence services. According to Zelenskyy, Russian President Vladimir Putin is reportedly preparing to recruit additional Russian soldiers to fight in the war against Ukraine. "He is concealing his intention behind different words and signals, but he is making preparations," Zelenskyy said. "It is important that we, together with our partners, exert sufficient pressure on Russia so that the idea of ending this aggression — the idea of peace, rather than further Russian mobilization — prevails," he added. The Ukrainian president also said Russia's army was losing more fighters at the front than it can recruit, even though Putin wants to intensify the attacks and expand the war. Putin issued a decree in autumn 2022 launching a "partial mobilization," which remains in effect to this day, as confirmed by the presidential administration in 2023. The document, it said, "regulates additional measures necessary to ensure that the armed forces fulfill their objectives." Scores of Russians fled abroad after the Kremlin announced a partial mobilization in September 2022 Image: AP/picture alliance What points to a possible new mobilization drive? Independent Russian exile media outlet Verstka and Latvia-based Russian-language news portal Vaschnyje Istorii published an investigative report in late June stating that Russia's leadership was secretly "discussing mobilization" given the difficulties in recruiting new conscripts. One source quoted by Verstka said figures by Moscow's mayoral office show the city sent 1,708 people to the front in April of this year and 1,378 in May — around 1,000 fewer people than during the same period last year.

This low recruitment rate reportedly continued in June as well. Vaschnyje Istorii reported that the recruitment rate for soldiers serving on fixed-term contracts more than halved in the last quarter of 2025 compared with the same period the previous year. The outlet said the recruitment rate had dropped even further in early 2026. The news outlet also cited sources from different Russian regions revealing that the number of people applying for army contracts was falling. Military personnel interviewed by Verstka said that contract soldiers being sent to fight this year were "unfit for combat," with many new arrivals fleeing the front lines. One conscript told the news outlet that "units are staffed at 30 to 40%, at best." Droves of Russian fighting-age men made also their way to Georgia in 2022 Image: Daro Sulakauri/Getty Images The US-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported in late July that the Kremlin is laying the groundwork for a fresh mobilization drive. ISW analysts wrote that such a move would be "a personal decision for Putin that is contingent on his personal perception of the battlefield situation and his perception of the stability and integrity of the Kremlin." They added that it "remains unclear whether or how Putin will decide to implement mobilization." A few days ago, Verstka reported that demand for Armenian rental apartments had shot up, driven by Russian interest — just as it had in 2022, when Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.