Kerala rains 2026: researchers call for redrawing disaster management strategy amidst increasing extreme rainfall events
Researchers at the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research (ACARR) in the Cochin University of Science and Technology have recommended a fundamental shift in Kerala’s
Researchers at the Advanced Centre for Atmospheric Radar Research (ACARR) in the Cochin University of Science and Technology have recommended a fundamental shift in Kerala’s disaster management strategy with extreme rainfall events becoming a more frequent feature of the State’s climate scenario. They point out that Kerala is emerging as a hotspot for mesoscale mini cloudbursts due to changing rainfall patterns and cloud structures. Mesoscale cloudbursts are extreme, highly localised downpour, mostly exceeding 100 mm in an hour, falling over a scale spanning tens to hundreds of square kilometers. “Driven by strong convection and orographic lifting, these short-duration extreme events generate rapid runoff and flash floods. Land degradation and deforestation further aggravate impacts, making the State a hotspot for mesoscale mini cloudburst-induced disasters,” said S. Abhilash, Director of ACARR. “Given the growing unpredictability of cyclone behaviour, improved impact-based forecasting, real-time prediction systems, and climate-informed policy planning are essential to safeguard coastal populations and marine-dependent livelihoods.
Studies have shown that mesoscale cloudbursts occurring under favourable ocean-atmospheric conditions may leave a vast area of the State vulnerable to flash floods and landslides, anytime during the monsoon season,” he said. Suggesting an urgent need for participatory, localised disaster management frameworks, Mr. Abhilash said that centralised approaches alone are insufficient in view of the State’s rapidly changing climate and terrain fragility. Region-specific interventions “A bottom-up, people-centred, multi-hazard early warning system, integrating local knowledge, scientific monitoring, ecosystem-based adaptation, and decentralised governance, is essential. Continuous, multi-scale atmospheric monitoring and region-specific policy interventions are critical to reduce fatalities, protect livelihoods, and enhance resilience in the face of increasingly localised and extreme weather events,” he said. Researchers indicated that a warming Arabian Sea and a warmer atmosphere are increasing the moisture available to the monsoon system, creating favourable conditions for more intense rainfall events. “With deep mesoscale convective systems and towering convective clouds developing rapidly and producing exceptionally heavy rainfall over small areas within a few hours, neighbouring districts or even nearby river basins can experience very different rainfall amounts.
The BriefWire