Out of work and outraged
It wonât be an exaggeration to say that the Jantar Mantar protest led by the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) is by far the most formidable
It wonât be an exaggeration to say that the Jantar Mantar protest led by the Cockroach Janta Party (CJP) is by far the most formidable challenge this government has faced in its 12 years of rule. While it was the issue of repeated paper leaks which pushed the people over the brink, the disillusionment runs far deeper among young Indians. And there is a material basis for this disillusionment. Unfortunately, neither the defiant resignation letter of the Minister nor the rousing welcome he got in the Parliament after the resignation gives the impression that the government has heard the voice of its own youth with any humility. The question, then, is: why did the agitation catch the imagination of the youth? A lost demographic advantage Let us start with what is called a demographic dividend. India currently has the youngest population in the world. Chart 1 shows a rising share of people in the working age bracket (15-64 years) out of the total population â a potential demographic dividend. We are calling it potential because its mere existence does not guarantee its realisation. If the unemployment rates, especially among those entering the labour market, remain high, we are essentially frittering the youth dividend away. Chart 2, which compares the unemployment rate among the youth (15-29 years) in contrast to the overall workers, shows that India is indeed turning its face away from its youth. Youth unemployment is three times higher than the overall rate. Among women, it is almost four times higher. Urban women are the worst affected. Nearly one in five women looking for work is unable to find a job. It is therefore no surprise that a significantly large section of those protesting were women students. And the frustration runs deep because even education is not enough to find a job in the Indian markets. Chart 3 shows that unemployment rises with education. The more educated you are, the less likely you are to land yourself a job.
So, lack of jobs for the youth is not a supply but a demand side problem. Youth in India are unemployed not because they are not educated but because the economy is not generating enough jobs for them. The crisis in education It is not just a lack of jobs; access to quality education is also becoming increasingly limited. This is due to both quantitative and qualitative reasons. On the quantitative side, it is perhaps for the first time in Indiaâs history that spending on education as a percentage of GDP has declined consistently for over a decade. While the governmentâs own Education Policy (NEP) 2020 recommended a significant increase in spending on education, the reality is the opposite. Spending on education as a share of the total budget has been declining consistently under the current government (Chart 4). This is a significant point that cannot be stressed enough. Strictly speaking, spending as a proportion of GDP could decline purely because other components (investments, exports, consumption) of GDP can potentially grow faster. In contrast, the share of its own budget that a government allocates to education is entirely at its discretion and reflects the importance it attaches to the sector. Chart 4 clearly shows that education has been slipping from the radar of this government over its tenure so far. This was yet another case of a failed promise, to which the students responded with their feet on Jantar Mantar (and elsewhere in the country). The low priority accorded to education by this government becomes even clearer when one looks at what it did in the last Budget. They spent way below what they promised in their budget with a shortfall amounting to âš6,701 crores (Chart 5). Starving education of funds creates a serious supply bottleneck as far as access to education is concerned. While the number of applicants rises with the growing youth dividend, the number of seats does not. The odds of securing a seat even in an average institution, let alone a premier one, keeps declining every year.
The BriefWire