Strait of Hormuz disruption hits energy, fertilizer and industrial trade

Published 4 August 2026 · world

Exports of natural gas dropped by a staggering 95 per cent. The finding comes in analysis published by the International Trade Centre (ITC), a multilateral

Exports of natural gas dropped by a staggering 95 per cent. The finding comes in analysis published by the International Trade Centre (ITC), a multilateral agency that has a joint mandate with the World Trade Organization (WTO) and UN trade and development body UNCTAD. Critical maritime corridor The Strait, located south of Iran, is responsible for around one quarter of global seaborne oil trade and a significant share of liquefied natural gas flows and fertilizers, including a third of globally traded urea. Since the military escalation in late February, reduced commercial passage, concerns over navigational safety and higher transport and insurance costs have affected trade flows far beyond the region. Although recent lulls in the fighting have raised hopes that shipping could resume more fully, traffic remains far below normal levels. Strategic products examined The analysis focuses on 12 strategically important energy, fertilizer and industrial products for which Hormuz-dependent economies are important global suppliers.

This group comprises Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates. Trade data for April reveals that combined merchandise exports across all products from these economies declined by 21 per cent in value. The ITC noted, however, that export values are also affected by sharp movements in international commodity prices triggered by the disruption itself, therefore changes in physical quantities provide complementary evidence on the extent of the disruption to actual trade flows. Decline in exports Across all 12 products, export volumes fell between April 2025 and April 2026. Combined export volumes declined by 54 per cent, with liquified natural gas recording the steepest contraction, 95 per cent. Urea exports declined by 83 per cent, followed by methanol (80 per cent) and ammonia (75 per cent. Polymers of propylene (or polypropylene) - used for plastic packaging in consumer goods - were the least affected, declining by 24 per cent.

The largest absolute losses were in energy products such as crude petroleum oil exports, which fell by 28 million tonnes, followed by refined petroleum oils and liquefied natural gas which declined by 7.3 million tonnes and 5.5 million tonnes respectively “Sizeable falls in fertilizers, chemicals, plastics and aluminium show that the disruption affected a broader range of industries and supply chains,” the authors noted. Importers seek alternatives Meanwhile, importing markets were not affected in the same way, depending on factors such as reliance on Hormuz suppliers, access to inventories and strategic reserves, domestic demand and ability to source from alternative suppliers. Japan, for example, historically sourced 91 per cent of its crude petroleum oil imports from Hormuz-dependent economies. In April, the country recorded a 64 per cent decline in total imports. Other highly dependent markets such as the Republic of Korea and Malaysia faced the same situation.