Upper Caste Discontent? The Common Thread In BJP's Datia And Bankipur Setbacks
Upper Caste Discontent? The Common Thread In BJP's Datia And Bankipur Setbacks Written By, Last Updated: August 04, 2026, 14:22 IST The reasons for the
Upper Caste Discontent? The Common Thread In BJP's Datia And Bankipur Setbacks Written By, Last Updated: August 04, 2026, 14:22 IST The reasons for the BJP's defeats in Bankipur and Datia may not be identical, but they expose a common vulnerability when seen together. Rapid Read Photo for representation (AFP) By-election results are often dismissed as local contests where outcomes largely depend on candidate selection, turnout and constituency-specific issues. Yet, every once in a while, two seemingly unrelated verdicts reveal a deeper political current. The BJP’s losses in Bankipur in Bihar and Datia in Madhya Pradesh appear to have done just that. On paper, the two constituencies could hardly be more different. Bankipur is an urban pocket in the heart of Patna, represented by the BJP for nearly three decades and considered one of its safest upper-caste bastions. Datia, in the Gwalior-Chambal region, is a politically volatile seat where personalities have often mattered as much as parties. One was won by Jan Suraaj founder Prashant Kishor in what is the first big breakthrough for his fledgling political outfit. The other was retained by the Congress despite the BJP throwing its organisational heft behind the contest. Beneath the local narratives, however, lies an uncomfortable question for the BJP. Have the upper caste voters, its most dependable social coalition, begun showing signs of restlessness? The answer may not yet be a categorical yes. But the bypoll results suggest the question can no longer be brushed aside. Bankipur has rarely been just another Assembly constituency. Since delimitation in 2008, it has remained firmly in the BJP’s column. Nitin Nabin won the seat in 2010 with nearly 60 per cent of the vote, retained it comfortably in 2015 despite the Mahagathbandhan wave, and expanded the party’s dominance again in 2020.
The constituency has long been regarded as one of Bihar’s most influential upper-caste urban seats. Estimates place the upper-caste population, including Kayasths, Bhumihars, Brahmins and Rajputs, at roughly 37 per cent of the electorate, with Kayasths forming the single most influential bloc. Vaishya traders (Baniyas) account for another 10-12 per cent, while OBCs, EBCs, Muslims and Scheduled Castes make up the remainder. For years, this social arithmetic worked almost perfectly for the BJP. The party’s victories were built on near-total consolidation of upper-caste voters, supplemented by sections of Vaishyas and non-Yadav OBCs. That formula appeared almost invincible. On Monday, Prashant Kishor changed this equation. His campaign was visibly different from that of the RJD or the Congress. Rather than seeking to polarise the contest, Jan Suraaj pitched itself as a governance alternative, targeting precisely the urban, educated voter who had traditionally leaned towards the BJP. By the time the votes were counted, it had become clear that Kishor had not merely mobilised anti-BJP voters, he had persuaded a section of the BJP’s traditional support base that political experimentation was worth the risk. His own words after the result reflected that caution. “Bankipur will not become Bengaluru overnight," he said, refusing to oversell what his supporters described as a historic victory. Nearly 1,000 kilometres away, Datia presented a different story but arrived at a strikingly similar destination. Unlike Bankipur, Datia’s electorate is socially more diverse. Upper castes, primarily Brahmins and Thakurs, are estimated to constitute around 27 per cent of voters. OBC communities account for roughly 35 per cent, while Scheduled Castes comprise another 22 to 25 per cent, making coalition-building far more complicated than in Bankipur. Yet upper-caste politics has always carried weight beyond numbers here. And that has largely been because of former Madhya Pradesh minister and BJP heavyweight Narottam Mishra.
The BriefWire