Rubio’s bypass plan: Can the world escape the Strait of Hormuz chokepoint?
As the US pushes to diversify energy routes away from the Strait of Hormuz, experts warn that logistical nightmares and security threats make a full
As the US pushes to diversify energy routes away from the Strait of Hormuz, experts warn that logistical nightmares and security threats make a full escape impossible. United States Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s latest remarks about the Strait of Hormuz have ignited a fierce debate over the future of global energy transit. Speaking to Fox News in an interview that aired on Saturday, Rubio projected the idea of a permanent geopolitical shift outside of the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one fifth of global seaborne oil trade passed before the start of the US-Israel war on Iran. He argued that regional states now understand that Iran, which insists it will not give up control the strategic waterway, is an active threat, necessitating a massive realignment of how energy commodities flow to markets across the world. However, economic experts and geopolitical analysts warn that redrawing the Middle East’s energy map is fraught with insurmountable logistical and security hurdles. A strategic vision, not a quick fix To understand the magnitude of Rubio’s vision, one must look at the sheer volume of trade passing through the waterway. According to data from the US Energy Information Administration (EIA), the narrow 39-kilometre (24-mile) strait handles roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day, equating to about 20 percent of global petroleum liquids consumption.
Furthermore, the EIA noted that the strait serves as the transit point for a fifth of the world’s liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade, primarily from Qatar. Economic researcher Ahmed Abu Qamar told Al Jazeera that Rubio’s statements represent a long-term strategic vision rather than an immediately executable economic plan. Energy markets are governed by the hard realities of supply and demand, he added, and it would take decades and billions of dollars in investments to even partially reduce reliance on the strait as one of the world’s main thoroughfares for commodities. The most critical challenge lies in natural gas, Abu Qamar said, as the entire LNG export ecosystem – including liquefaction plants, specialised tankers, and receiving ports – is heavily reliant on Hormuz. He warned that if this route is blocked, Europe and Asia would be forced to engage in fierce competition for alternative gas supplies, inevitably triggering massive price spikes, global inflation, and deep confusion for central banks worldwide. The pipeline illusion and the Red Sea trap To execute this monumental shift, energy producers in the Middle East have previously mooted the idea of building vast overland pipelines to bypass the Strait of Hormuz. The crown jewel of this strategy is Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, also known as Petroline, which links the Abqaiq oil processing facilities to the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
The BriefWire