Kerala floods 2026: cloudburst-like event exposes gaps in State’s weather forecasting, disaster preparedness
The extremely heavy rain that lashed many parts of Kerala under the influence of a depression and an offshore trough resembled a cloudburst in several
The extremely heavy rain that lashed many parts of Kerala under the influence of a depression and an offshore trough resembled a cloudburst in several regions, with torrential downpours occurring over short periods. Although the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has not confirmed that it was a cloudburst, a rain gauge maintained by the Kerala State Disaster Management Authority (KSDMA) recorded a whopping 361 mm of rainfall at Vadasserikkara in Pathanamthitta in the 24-hour period ending at 8:30 a.m. on Saturday (August 1, 2026). The Anakkampoyil region in Kozhikode received 340 mm of rainfall over 35 hours, while Meppadi in Wayanad recorded 177 mm. The automatic weather station managed by the IMD at Laha in Pathanamthitta recorded 250 mm of rainfall during the 24-hour period ending at 8:30 a.m. on Saturday. The weather agency failed to issue a red alert in advance despite the impending extreme rainfall event.
Similarly, the State disaster management authorities failed to recognise the unfolding crisis in the ghat regions of Kerala due to the absence of timely warnings. ‘Did not meet criteria’ Speaking to The Hindu, Neetha K. Gopal, Director of the IMD, Thiruvananthapuram, said that, technically, the rainfall did not meet the criteria for a cloudburst, which is defined as a sudden, extremely heavy rain event in which a small area receives 10 cm (100 mm) or more of rainfall within one hour. However, she admitted that the rainfall was exceptionally heavy, particularly on Friday night, triggering flash floods. As in the recent debris slip tragedy in Wayanad, which claimed eight lives after torrential rain triggered a devastating debris flow, the weather agency issued a red alert warning for extreme rainfall in Kerala on Saturday morning only after the event had already occurred. According to weather scientists, the offshore trough, which normally enhances rainfall activity in Kerala, extended only up to north Kerala from Gujarat on Friday.
In fact, monsoon rainfall had been severely deficient in Idukki and Wayanad, with the hill districts recording more than a 50% deficit during the first two months of the monsoon season. As a result, temperatures in these regions were higher than normal compared with other parts of the State, leading to strong local convection. Scientists said this was the primary reason for the extremely heavy rainfall in Idukki, Pathanamthitta, and areas close to Wayanad, while rainfall remained normal elsewhere in the State. According to them, deficient rainfall raises surface temperatures, which in turn intensify local convection. When this convection interacts with moisture-laden monsoon winds, it generates cumulonimbus clouds, producing cloudburst-like rainfall events. According to weather scientists, the weather agency, while monitoring the semi-permanent features of the monsoon, failed to adequately account for the regional convection triggered by temperature fluctuations. These fluctuations drew in more moisture-laden winds, while the presence of the Western Ghats further aided the formation of cumulonimbus clouds—dense, towering storm clouds capable of producing intense rainfall and severe weather.
The BriefWire