Monsoon in India at risk? IMD warns of intensifying El Niño conditions, UN says planet 'on fire'
The monsoon in India appears at risk, with the India Meteorological Department predicting "below-normal rainfall" during the second half of the Southwest Monsoon season (August–September)
The monsoon in India appears at risk, with the India Meteorological Department predicting "below-normal rainfall" during the second half of the Southwest Monsoon season (August–September) 2026. "During this period, below-normal rainfall is very likely over many parts of the country except some parts of the Peninsular India, Central India, northern parts of northwest India and East and Northeast India where normal to above-normal rainfall is likely," the weather department said in its latest forecast. Is this the impact of El Niño? The IMD mentioned in its August forecast that moderate El Niño conditions currently prevail over the "equatorial Pacific Ocean, with sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies remaining above normal across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. " The weather department said El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen further during the Southwest Monsoon season.
"Forecasts from the Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecast System (MMCFS) also indicate a continued strengthening of El Niño conditions throughout the remaining period of Southwest Monsoon season," the IMD added. The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has repeatedly warned that El Niño conditions are set to influence global temperature and rainfall patterns, increasing the risk of extreme weather over the coming months. El Niño conditions refer to unusually warm ocean surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific. In contrast, cooler-than-normal temperatures usually mean La Niña conditions, when easterly winds become stronger, the WMO explains. These phenomena impact monsoons and drought conditions globally. Impact on India In India, El Niño is likely to bring below-normal rainfall (less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA)) in August 2026. The IMD has predicted the development of El Nino conditions during the 2026 southwest monsoon season.
El Nino conditions were weak during June 2026 and intensified to moderate levels in July 2026. It's expected to further intensify “starting next month” and shape weather patterns across many parts of the world, the WMO said. The Ministry of Earth Sciences told Parliament on July 30 that El Nino is likely to strengthen further during the October–December 2026 season and may reach a very strong category. "However, its exact intensity and impacts over the Indian region depend on the evolution of coupled ocean–atmosphere conditions, of which El Nino is one factor. IMD continuously monitors the evolution of oceanic and atmospheric conditions and issues regular seasonal and monthly forecasts and advisories," the ministry said. Meanwhile, the WMO said that as the August–October 2026 rainfall outlook exhibits patterns of a classic strong El Niño event, "drier-than-normal" conditions are more likely over the Indian subcontinent.
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