IMD sees below-normal August-September rains, reviving inflation fears
India is heading into the most critical phase of the monsoon with the weather office forecasting below-normal rainfall through August and September, raising fresh risks
India is heading into the most critical phase of the monsoon with the weather office forecasting below-normal rainfall through August and September, raising fresh risks for kharif crops, food inflation and rural demand. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday said India is likely to receive less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the second half of the June-September monsoon season. The August-September LPA, based on the 1971-2020 climatological record, is 422.8 mm. The forecast follows a volatile start to the southwest monsoon. June rainfall was 35.4% below the LPA before rebounding to 1% above normal in July, when the country received 283.3 mm against the normal 280.5 mm, despite the IMD forecasting below-normal rainfall for the month. Below-normal rainfall is very likely across much of the country during August-September, except parts of peninsular, central and northwest India, and east and northeast India, where rainfall is expected to be normal to above normal, the IMD said. “July witnessed a substantial improvement in monsoon performance compared to June. The share of districts with normal or better rainfall increased from 30% (224 districts) in June to 53% (388 districts) in July, while deficient and large deficient districts declined from 69% (508 districts) to 46% (344 districts),” said Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director general of meteorology, IMD.
The IMD had cut its June-September monsoon forecast to 90% of the LPA from 92% on 29 May, citing El Niño conditions. India last recorded a below-normal monsoon in 2023, when rainfall was 95% of the LPA. The department also expects August rainfall alone to remain below normal at less than 94% of the LPA. Inflation risks Economists said another spell of weak rainfall could hit kharif crops and perishable vegetables, hurting farm incomes, rural demand and food prices. "It depends on where the rain deficit regions are, if they are in predominantly agricultural zones then we will certainly see an inflation in food prices. The kharif crops will be the most affected, and leafy vegetables. This has a direct impact on farmer life and agriculture supply chains. There could be pressure on the government to compensate for this loss,” said Gurudas Nulkar, director, Centre for Sustainable Development, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics (GIPE), Pune. He added that if rainfall remains around 94% of the LPA and deficits are concentrated outside major food-producing states, the economic impact is likely to be manageable.
The BriefWire