May 26 To June 1 To June 4: How Monsoon Has Been Missing Its Date With Kerala
May 26 To June 1 To June 4: How Monsoon Has Been Missing Its Date With Kerala Published By, Last Updated: June 02, 2026, 16:03
May 26 To June 1 To June 4: How Monsoon Has Been Missing Its Date With Kerala Published By, Last Updated: June 02, 2026, 16:03 IST As per the fresh model assessments, the strong upper-level winds needed to support a full-fledged monsoon may develop only after June 5-6. The weather department now expects the southwest monsoon to reach Kerala around June 4, after favourable conditions weakened at the last moment. (Image: PTI) Kerala has already received rainfall and yet the final date of the onset of monsoon continues to get delayed. As per the latest runs by India Meteorological Department (IMD) monsoon is likely to arrive in Kerala around June 4, three days behind schedule. While the official date for onset of monsoon in Kerala is June 1, the IMD on May 15 said monsoon will reach the state on May 26. However, the final date has once again been postponed. Reason For Change The reason is in a set of scientific benchmarks that are needed to be fulfilled before the weather department can officially announce the arrival of southwest monsoon.
As per the fresh model assessments, the strong upper-level winds needed to support a full-fledged monsoon may develop only after June 5-6. This year, the delay attracted particular attention because the IMD had initially forecast an early onset around May 26. That prediction did not materialise, forcing forecasters to revise the arrival window. The Benchmarks Of IMD There are three key atmospheric conditions that must occur simultaneously over Kerala and adjoining regions. Widespread Rainfall Across Designated Stations The primary requirement for declaring the onset of the monsoon is sustained and widespread rainfall. To assess this, the IMD tracks rainfall data from a network of designated weather stations across Kerala. A formal declaration is made only when a majority of these stations record the prescribed rainfall levels for two consecutive days, confirming that the precipitation is part of the organised southwest monsoon system rather than isolated pre-monsoon thunderstorms. According to meteorologists, this criterion has not been met consistently in recent days, despite intermittent spells of heavy rainfall in parts of the state.
Strong Westerly Winds The second criterion concerns wind patterns. The southwest monsoon is essentially a large-scale seasonal reversal of winds. Before declaring its onset, the IMD looks for strong and sustained westerly winds over the Arabian Sea and the lower atmosphere surrounding Kerala. These winds act as the monsoon’s moisture conveyor, carrying vast amounts of moisture from the ocean to the Indian subcontinent. In their absence, rainfall tends to be scattered and inconsistent. Meteorologists say weaker-than-expected westerly winds have been a key factor behind the delay in the monsoon’s advance this year. Deep Cloud Formation And Outgoing Longwave Radiation The third and final criterion relates to cloud structure. Meteorologists analyse satellite imagery to determine whether the deep convective cloud systems characteristic of the southwest monsoon have established. One of the key indicators used is Outgoing Longwave Radiation (OLR), which helps scientists assess cloud density and the intensity of atmospheric convection. Lower OLR values typically signal thicker cloud cover and stronger monsoon activity.
For the monsoon to be officially declared, this cloud formation must be sufficiently organised and widespread across the region. According to weather officials, this benchmark too has not been met consistently over Kerala in recent days. News18 Newsletter Handpicked stories, in your inbox A newsletter with the best of our journalism submit First Published: June 02, 2026, 16:03 IST News india May 26 To June 1 To June 4: How Monsoon Has Been Missing Its Date With Kerala Disclaimer: Comments reflect users’ views, not News18’s. Please keep discussions respectful and constructive. Abusive, defamatory, or illegal comments will be removed. News18 may disable any comment at its discretion. By posting, you agree to our Terms of Use and Privacy Policy Loading comments...
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