Ten years and 7 PMs later, did Brexit make a difference?
When Andy Burnham took charge as the U.K.’s Prime Minister on July 20, he became the seventh occupant of 10 Downing Street since the country
When Andy Burnham took charge as the U.K.’s Prime Minister on July 20, he became the seventh occupant of 10 Downing Street since the country decided to exit the European Union (EU) by a narrow margin in the Brexit referendum held in June 2016. The fact that the U.K. has never seen these many Prime Ministers in any 10-year period in at least the last five decades speaks to the political volatility the country is witnessing. Although one cannot attribute the unprecedented revolving door of Prime Ministers to Brexit alone, the instability provides the backdrop to test whether the U.K.’s exit from the EU — which legally came into force in January 2020 — made any difference in meeting the objectives it purportedly wanted to achieve. The two key arguments made in favour of the exit were to control migration and enable the U.K. to chart its own path in trade by freeing the country from the “unfair” regulations imposed by the EU. Taking back control of borders The ‘Vote Leave’ campaign used the famous slogan “take back control”, meaning in part to increase control over the U.K.’s borders and break free from the EU’s free movement programme, which allows citizens of member countries to live and travel across other member countries without a visa. Seven months after the referendum, the then Prime Minister Theresa May said, “Brexit must mean control of the number of people who come to Britain from Europe.” The Conservative Party manifesto for the 2019 election, which Boris Johnson won to become the Prime Minister, promised that there would be fewer lower-skilled immigrants and that overall immigration would come down.
Instead, the data show that net migration (immigration minus emigration) moved in the opposite direction, although immigration from EU countries fell. After free movement between the U.K. and the EU ended in January 2021, net migration reached 8,91,000 in 2022 and 8,48,000 in 2023, more than three times the 2016 level. In fact, the total net migration of 2.7 million in the five-year period from 2021 to 2025 was more than double the 1.27 million recorded in the five years before the Brexit vote (2012-2016). Brexit campaigners had promised to cut overall numbers by replacing EU free movement with a common system covering migrants from everywhere. While a unified system was put in place, the trends for EU and non-EU migrants diverged sharply. In the 2012-2016 period, net migration from EU countries to the U.K. marginally exceeded the country’s overall net migration figure. For instance, in 2016, net migration from EU and non-EU countries stood at 2,53,000 and 90,000 respectively, while 94,000 U.K. nationals left the country. This left the U.K.’s net migration in 2016 at 2,49,000. The trend has since reversed: from mid-2022, net migration from the EU to the U.K. has been negative. Thus, Brexit did not reduce migration but altered the composition of migrants. Mixed outcomes in trade Trade tells another complicated story.
The BriefWire