PK makes poll debut today. Will RJD's M-Y voters help him beat the BJP?
After years of scripting election victories for others, Prashant Kishor is finally making his electoral debut as a candidate. Kishor's candidature in the Bankipur Assembly
After years of scripting election victories for others, Prashant Kishor is finally making his electoral debut as a candidate. Kishor's candidature in the Bankipur Assembly by-election, which is being held today, has transformed what would otherwise have been a routine contest into Bihar's most closely watched political battle. It's not merely a fight for a single Assembly seat. The Bankipur bypoll would be a litmus test for Jan Suraaj's political future, the BJP's hold over its bastion, and the Rashtriya Janata Dal's (RJD) ability to hold together its formidable Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) vote bank. Read Full Story "The Muslim voters are consolidating behind Prashant Kishor's Jan Suraaj because it is the party that's best placed to take on the BJP," Political commentator and VoteVibe founder Amitabh Tiwari told India Today Digital. "However, which way the Yadav votes go will be interesting to see," he added. The Bankipur seat fell vacant after BJP national president Nitin Nabin, who represented the urban Patna seat for nearly two decades and whose family has controlled the constituency for over 35 years, resigned after being elevated to the Rajya Sabha. While bypolls are also being held in Gujarat's Manjalpur and Madhya Pradesh's Datia, it is Bankipur that has grabbed national attention. The results of the by-elections will be announced on August 3. Unlike a conventional bypoll, Bankipur has evolved into a three-cornered battle. For the BJP, it is about defending one of its strongest fortresses. For Prashant Kishor, it is a referendum on whether Jan Suraaj can emerge as Bihar's third political force — which failed to win even one seat in the 2025 Assembly election. For the RJD, it is perhaps the first serious test of whether its decades-old Muslim-Yadav (M-Y) arithmetic is beginning to crack, and whether it risks losing its clout as Bihar's principal opposition party. PRASHANT KISHOR WILL GIVE A TOUGH FIGHT TO BJP: OPINION POLL An opinion poll conducted by VoteVibe suggests that the BJP still enjoys an advantage, but Prashant Kishor's entry has altered the electoral landscape of the Bankipur seat. According to the survey, the BJP is projected to secure 44.9% of the vote, comfortably ahead of Jan Suraaj at 33.8%, while the RJD trails at 17.8%. The numbers become more striking when compared to the 2025 Bihar Assembly election. Jan Suraaj's vote share has surged from just 4.97% statewide to 33.8% in Bankipur. The BJP's support, meanwhile, has fallen sharply from 63.2% to 44.9%in Bankipur.
The biggest loser, according to the opinion poll, appears to be the RJD, whose vote share has declined from 29.8% to 17.8%. In other words, while the BJP remains ahead, Kishor has succeeded in turning a BJP walkover into a genuine contest. The survey also notes why the BJP has refused to take the battle lightly. Bankipur has long been viewed as synonymous with Nitin Nabin's political legacy. Losing the seat would not merely cost the BJP an Assembly constituency. It would dent the prestige of the party's national president and the BJP's image of invincibility. BJP CAMPAIGNED IN BANKIPUR AS IF IT WAS ON THE DEFENSIVE The VoteVibe opinion poll offers clues as to why the BJP left nothing to chance in Bankipur, despite the constituency being one of its safest bastions in Bihar. The Democratic Alliance (NDA) led by the BJP brought former Chief Minister Nitish Kumar into the campaign through a video appeal, to consolidate alliance voters and blunt the momentum generated by Kishor. The BJP government also withdrew cases registered against Gen Z protesters who had agitated over examination paper leaks, a move many political observers interpreted as a last-minute outreach to young voters before polling. Even the BJP's candidate selection reflected the pressure. The party had initially nominated Abhishek Kumar Sinha, popularly known as Bunty, but replaced him after controversy over his father's alleged links to the Bihar fodder scam. It eventually fielded 32-year-old BJP youth-wing leader Neeraj Kumar Sinha. The RJD has once again fielded Rekha Kumari Gupta, the runner-up from the 2025 Assembly election. The bypoll is also politically significant because it is the first electoral contest after Nitish Kumar stepped down as Chief Minister and BJP leader Samrat Choudhary took charge, making the result an early assessment of the BJP's new leadership in Bihar. Despite Bankipur being considered a BJP stronghold, the party mounted an unusually intensive campaign to retain the seat. It deployed Chief Minister Samrat Choudhary, Union ministers Giriraj Singh and Nityanand Rai, MP Ravi Shankar Prasad, Nitin Nabin, and other senior NDA leaders. The campaign featured roadshows, door-to-door outreach and a full organisational push. This level of campaign by the BJP highlights the importance of the bypoll. The saffron camp also had 40 star campaigners, including Manoj Tiwari, Pawan Singh and Maithili Thakur, on the field, reflecting the determination to leave nothing to chance. BANKIPUR BYPOLL WILL TEST RJD AS THE PRINCIPAL OPPOSITION The most consequential battle is unfolding within the opposition itself.
The BriefWire