BJP Poised To Retain Bankipur, Manjalpur, Close Contest With Congress In Datia: Opinion Poll

Published 29 July 2026 · politics

BJP Poised To Retain Bankipur, Manjalpur, Close Contest With Congress In Datia: Opinion Poll Published By, Last Updated: July 29, 2026, 12:37 IST Vote Vibe

BJP Poised To Retain Bankipur, Manjalpur, Close Contest With Congress In Datia: Opinion Poll Published By, Last Updated: July 29, 2026, 12:37 IST Vote Vibe opinion poll predicts saffron surge in 2 of 3 bypoll seats: Gujarat’s Manjalpur, Bihar’s Bankipur & MP's Datia will vote on July 30; results to be announced on August 3 Rapid Read The BJP is projected to win two of the three seats going for bypolls. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) may retain Bihar’s Bankipur and Gujarat’s Manjalpur, while Datia in Madhya Pradesh will see a close contest with the Congress as the three Assembly seats go for bypolls on July 30, according to the Vote Vibe opinion poll. The results will be announced on August 3. BANKIPUR (BIHAR) OPINION POLL: BJP IN THE LEAD; RJD, JAN SURAAJ FIGHT IT OUT The seat was vacated following the resignation of five-term BJP MLA and party president Nitin Nabin after his election to the Rajya Sabha. According to Vote Vibe, the BJP may lead here with 44.9%, well ahead of Jan Suraaj (33.8%) and RJD (17.8%). The BJP’s lead over Jan Suraaj is about 11 points. The BJP is predicted to perform much better among women (52.5%) than men (40.8%). Jan Suraaj is the mirror image: stronger among men (37.9%) than women (26.1%). This suggests the BJP’s overall lead is being driven disproportionately by female voters, while Jan Suraaj’s second-place position relies more on male voters. The BJP’s vote share is lowest among those aged 26-35 (39.3%) and highest among those aged 51-60 (50.2%) — a fairly clear age gradient, stronger with older voters.

Jan Suraaj shows the opposite trend: strongest among those aged 26-35 and weakest among those aged 60+. Poll prediction: The BJP is currently ahead, benefiting from a split between JSP and RJD. For Jan Suraaj to win, it needs a complete collapse of the RJD vote as well as a big dent in the BJP’s upper-caste vote. The main vote base of the RJD — Yadavs — sees this as an existential crisis for the party, while Muslims tend to think along the lines of voting for the party that is best suited to defeat the BJP. MANJALPUR (GUJARAT) OPINION POLL: BJP IN THE LEAD; CONGRESS, AAP TO FIGHT FOR 2ND SPOT The bypoll was necessitated as the seat was vacated following the demise of the sitting BJP MLA Yogeshbhai Narandas Patel. The BJP holds a commanding 68% vote share versus Congress’s 9.5% and Aam Aadmi Party’s 6.3% — a 58-point lead that undecided voters (13.7%) cannot realistically close, according to the opinion poll. The real contest is for a distant second place between the Congress and AAP. The BJP retains 87.1% of its 2022 voters — a near-fortress position. Women back the BJP more strongly than men — 71.7% vs 64.4%. The AAP is almost invisible among women (1.0%) but has real traction among men (11.4%). The female undecided bloc (17.7%) is nearly double the male bloc (9.9%) — the last genuinely persuadable segment. The AAP’s support is concentrated almost entirely among those aged 18-30 (15.4%) and evaporates past the age of 45. The BJP is strongest among those aged 60+ (78.7%), the group most likely to actually turn out given low bypoll awareness (54.9% unaware), according to the opinion poll.