Trump says ‘good chance’ of progress in Iran talks. What we know

Published 28 July 2026 · world

Negotiators are trying to break the deadlock over transit fees and the management of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump says Washington is

Negotiators are trying to break the deadlock over transit fees and the management of the Strait of Hormuz. US President Donald Trump says Washington is engaged in “very friendly negotiations” with Iran after pausing military strikes last week, raising hopes that weeks of escalating attacks could give way to renewed diplomacy. Speaking to supporters in Michigan on Monday, Trump said there was “a good chance” of progress in talks aimed at ending months of fighting, but reiterated his warning that military action could resume if negotiations fail. Iran has publicly denied holding direct talks with Washington at all. The foreign ministry’s spokesman, Esmaeil Baghaei, said Tehran was not negotiating with the United States but added that “intermediaries may convey messages from the American side to us regarding ongoing developments in the region”. According to news outlet Axios, Oman is leading the mediation effort, with Qatar, Pakistan and Egypt also involved alongside Trump’s envoys, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. The diplomatic push comes after fighting subsided again on Friday, after nearly two weeks of attacks by both sides had raised fears of a renewed, wider regional war. Those strikes had threatened to upend a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) signed in June which extended an April ceasefire and established a framework agenda for broader negotiations. However, disputes over its implementation and the wording of several clauses quickly emerged, particularly relating to control of the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most strategically important shipping routes which connects Gulf oil producers to the open ocean for shipping exports. On Tuesday, the third day of renewed talks continued, with the Strait of Hormuz at the centre of the discussions, as negotiators sought to salvage the agreement and prevent another round of fighting. Questions remain, however, over whether this latest diplomatic push can succeed where previous efforts have failed. The talks also come against the backdrop of a rapidly shifting strategic landscape. The Iran-aligned Houthis in Yemen have opened another front in the Red Sea where they are targeting ships; Ukraine has become increasingly drawn into the conflict; reports suggest US stockpiles of key munitions may be under pressure; Iran’s economy continues to face mounting strain; and oil markets remain volatile. Trump’s potentially fraught meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday could also influence the direction of negotiations. So, what are the chances these talks lead to a more durable peace? Here’s what we know. Why did strikes start up again following the June MoU? Although the Pakistan-brokered ceasefire in April and the subsequent June MoU were intended to defuse tensions between Iran and the US to allow time for peace talks, strong disagreements over the Strait of Hormuz quickly became the biggest obstacle to lasting peace. The MoU signed on June 17 committed Iran to facilitating commercial shipping freely through the strait for an initial 60-day period. Tehran said this meant it was in control and that vessels must use a route approved by Iran. Tehran also hinted that transit charges could be introduced after the initial 60-day period expired. Meanwhile, however, Oman announced a new shipping corridor through the strait that it said had been coordinated with the International Maritime Organization and supported by the US, a position Iran claimed violated the MoU. The map below shows the Iran-approved route, which brings ships much closer to the coast of Iran. On June 25, a commercial vessel travelling along the Omani-approved route was struck off Oman’s coast, according to the British military. A day later, the US launched another round of strikes on Iran. Several more ships were struck following this. The fighting escalated further in July, and Iran again announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, sending oil prices sharply higher and threatening one of the world’s most important energy chokepoints.