Why US officials believe sanctions, not bombs, will force Iran back to the table
As the United States seeks to revive negotiations with Iran, senior US officials believe sanctions, financial restrictions and economic pressure could inflict greater damage on
As the United States seeks to revive negotiations with Iran, senior US officials believe sanctions, financial restrictions and economic pressure could inflict greater damage on Tehran than military strikes, according to a Hindustan Times report. President Donald Trump halted military strikes after 13 days to give diplomacy another chance. On Monday, he claimed Iran had sought talks, although Tehran denied requesting direct negotiations, according to AP. US officials say Iran's worsening economic crisis is now their strongest leverage. "The Iranians want to stop being bombed and they want money. But that's almost in reverse order. They really want the money first," a senior administration official told Axios. Public data and intelligence assessments indicate Iran is under mounting financial strain, with gasoline shortages despite being one of the world's largest oil exporters. An already wounded Iran? A US official also claimed Tehran is struggling to finance its military operations.
"Intelligence is picking up that the Iranians are complaining they can't pay their fighters. Why? Because of the financial pressures. Because of Treasury. Because of what [Treasury Secretary] Scott Bessent is doing," the official said. "They're in danger of runs on banks. There are gasoline shortages in this giant oil-rich country. They're more scared of Treasury than the War Department." The Trump administration has reportedly sanctioned more than 1,000 individuals, ships and aircraft as part of its renewed "maximum pressure" campaign targeting Iran's economy. According to reports, Iran has made access to frozen assets and sanctions relief its top priorities in the ongoing negotiations. An effective strategy? Not everyone is convinced the sanctions campaign will work. Brett Erickson, an analyst at Obsidian Risk Advisors, described the latest sanctions push as “fairly hilarious”, arguing it is unlikely to produce meaningful results. Writing on X, he said, "More sanctions?
On Iran? Look at what Treasury and OFAC have done over the last two weeks, the conflict has resumed. They've barely released any new sanctions, and the only notable one targeted the Shamkhani network that Iran had obviously built redundancies... There's nothing really left to sanction at this point that would make a difference. That's been the case for months now." He added that while a naval blockade could be more effective, enforcement has been inconsistent. "The blockade you can certainly argue for, but given we just let 80 million barrels of oil waltz through the blockade line during the 27 days of the MOU... good luck," he wrote. Erickson also questioned the broader strategy of using economic pressure to weaken the Iranian regime. “Economic warfare is a fundamentally broken approach to the Iran war. You're telling me our strategy to make the Iranian people rise up and topple the regime was to kill a bunch of them, make them suffer, make their economic pain even worse...
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