Gold price prediction today: Will gold prices stay range-bound? Check July 28 outlook
In the near-term, upside in gold is likely to be capped as the FOMC's monetary policy decision looms. Gold price prediction today Gold prices are
In the near-term, upside in gold is likely to be capped as the FOMC's monetary policy decision looms. Gold price prediction today Gold prices are rising but are still not out of the woods, says Praveen Singh, Head Currencies and Commodities, Mirae Asset ShareKhan. Gold Performance Spot gold traded with an upward traction on Monday as a sharp decline in oil prices alleviated rate hike concerns to an extent. However, the metal trimmed its gains from its intra-day high of $4116 as oil prices rebounded slightly from day's low on Saudi Arabia reporting drone attacks by Iran militia from Iraq. At the time of writing this article, spot gold was trading with a gain of 0.20% at $4065. Earlier, in the week ending July 24, the yellow metal closed with a weekly gain of 0.90% at $4054. Data roundup US durable goods order data released Monday came in at 0.3% Vs the estimate of 1.8% (prior -4%), though core durable capital goods orders increased 0.9% last month after an upwardly revised 1.9% gain in May. Dallas Fed manufacturing activity in July was noted at 1.3 Vs the estimate of 2. Germany's business climate at 86.6 in July rose for the third straight month and beat the estimate of 86 (prior 85.7) as the German economy shows signs of stabilization. Trade and tariffs The Trump Administration, citing the issue of forced labour, has imposed tariffs of 10-12.5% on 60 trading partners, including EU and China, under section 301 of the Trade Act 1974 as temporary 10% global tariffs expired.
Additional tariffs are possible on excess capacity. Dollar Index and yields The US Dollar Index gained 0.70% to close at 101.46 in the week ending July 24. At the time of writing this article on Monday, the Index was trading largely flat. Two-year US yields were steady at 4.32%, while ten-year yields were down 2 bps to 4.65%. Last week, two-year yields rose to 4.36% -- highest since February 2025-- before retreating slightly with oil on Friday to close at 4.32%, up 3.83% for the week. Similarly, 10-year yields rose to 4.71%-- highest since January 2025—and settled with a weekly gain of 3% at 4.67% Friday. Fed rate hike possibility Overnight implied rates reflect the Federal Reserve hiking rates 1.09 times by September, while the next hike could come as soon as March 2027. Probabilities of the US Fed hiking rates in September, October and December stand at 81%, 86% and 91%, respectively. CFTC positioning Money managers increased their bullish gold bets by 4,439 net-long positions to 123,586 in the week ending July 21, according to weekly CFTC data. The net-long position was the most bullish in about six months as long-only positions rose 4,450 lots to 141,060- the highest in about six months. Short-only positions rose 11 lots to 17,474 Geopolitics and oil Oil prices tumbled on Monday following a pause in strikes after the U.S. carried out 13 consecutive nights of attacks on Iran. The pullback in oil prices came after the U.S. carried out no strikes on Iran for the third night in a row as President Donald Trump gives some space for peace talks.
The BriefWire