Donald Trump’s Iran conundrum: The Hindu update
(This article is part of the View From India newsletter curated by The Hindu’s foreign affairs experts. To get the newsletter in your inbox every
(This article is part of the View From India newsletter curated by The Hindu’s foreign affairs experts. To get the newsletter in your inbox every Monday, subscribe here.) After 13 nights of consecutive strikes on Iran, the U.S. paused its attack on Saturday (July 25). Tehran has also announced that it will halt its retaliatory strikes on U.S. bases in the region if the U.S. doesn’t launch new strikes. Both sides have acknowledged that messages are being exchanged through mediators to reconstitute the ceasefire. The first ceasefire since the U.S. and Israel launched the war on February 28 was announced on April 8. On June 17, both Iran and the U.S. signed a memorandum of understanding (MoU), pledging to respect each other’s sovereignty and begin substantive talks on Tehran’s nuclear programme. But within a month, fighting started. Why? The U.S. started bombing Iran over the latter’s control of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital international commercial chokepoint linking the Persian Gulf to the Arabian Sea. According to the MoU, Iran was in charge of ensuring safe passage of ships through the Strait. Iran opened a route along its coast for international shipping. The U.S. cleared an alternative route along Oman’s coast in the south of the strait, which was not acceptable for Iran. Tehran started attacking commercial vessels taking the southern route. The U.S. then started attacking Iran, seeking to “degrade” Iran’s ability to threaten international shipping.
During the 13 nights of bombing, the U.S. claimed to have targeted Iran’s military infrastructure across the country. But the bombing did little in deterring Iran’s capability to enforce the blockade or stage counter-attacks. Iran targeted U.S. bases across the region while retaining its tight control of the Strait of Hormuz, leaving Mr. Trump in a bind. The U.S. President last week issued several threats—he threatened to bomb Iranian bridges and power plants in retaliation for every Iranian attack on ships and use Iran’s frozen assets to compensate tankers that come under attack in the strait. But neither U.S. strikes nor Mr. Trump’s threats deterred Iran. What made matters worse for Mr. Trump was the Houthi decision to enforce a blockade on Saudi Arabia. The Houthis (Ansar Allah) who control most of Yemen’s population centres, including Sana’a, the capital, bombed Saudi oil facilities last week after a Saudi air strikes on Yemen. Oil prices soared past $100. The Houthi blockade on Saudi Arabia posed challenges to the Saudi efforts to get their oil out in the market. Already under severe pressure as the Strait of Hormuz is closed, the Saudis had moved much of their crude exports to the Red Sea terminals in the west. The Hindu warned in this editorial published on July 24 that Mr. Trump was getting caught in an escalation trap set by Iran and its allies in the region.
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