Why a new war in Yemen could be different for the Houthis
Recent developments strengthen anti-Houthi forces in Yemen as signs indicate that a re-eruption of the war is imminent. Sanaa, Yemen – The past few days
Recent developments strengthen anti-Houthi forces in Yemen as signs indicate that a re-eruption of the war is imminent. Sanaa, Yemen – The past few days have seen a mobilisation of Yemen’s Houthi forces in areas under their control with a full resumption of all-out war a real possibility after four years of quasi-peace. On Wednesday, the Houthis claimed responsibility for missile and drone attacks on two Saudi ships in the Red Sea, which the rebels said had defied their blockade on the kingdom’s ports. Simultaneously, clashes between Houthi fighters and Yemeni government-affiliated forces erupted on a front line in the southwestern governorate of Dhale, causing more than 30 casualties on both sides. With these two recent developments, the Houthis have moved from rhetoric and mobilisation to military action. After years of battlefield gains, the Houthis are now seeking to pursue military domination on the ground against their opponents, notably forces loyal to the internationally recognised Yemeni government. The Houthis are self-assured. They have been able to withstand attacks from the government, a Saudi-led coalition, the United States, the United Kingdom and Israel over the past decade and still continue to hold Yemen’s populous northwest, including the capital, Sanaa. But such confidence may be misplaced as several factors have been changing over the past four years – including the increased consolidation of anti-Houthi forces under the leadership of the government. While experts said the Houthis remain powerful actors in Yemen with considerable military force and influence at their disposal, the strategic environment has undeniably changed. This would make a resumption of war more difficult for the Houthis due to a plethora of factors. More coordination, less division In September 2014, the Houthis captured Sanaa and, amid weak military resistance and deep divides, pushed deeper into other parts of Yemen. The Houthis’ dramatic rise to power left the government divided and fragile, and due to the impending threat from the rebels, many political leaders, including then-President Abd-Rabu Mansour Hadi, fled Yemen for safety abroad, notably to Saudi Arabia. In March 2015, an Arab coalition led by Saudi Arabia joined the war in support of the Yemeni government and remained directly involved until an April 2022 truce.
Yet several years of war did not weaken the Houthis’ resolve or reverse their territorial gains. The conflicting agenda of the Arab coalition members, specifically the United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia, coupled with infighting within the Yemeni government camp, enabled the Houthis to maintain an upper hand over their opponents. Late last year, the Yemeni government ordered the UAE’s expulsion from Yemen while Saudi Arabia has provided military support to subdue Abu Dhabi’s ally in the south, the separatist Southern Transitional Council. All of this has put the government in a better position than at other points in the war. Ahmed Nagi, a senior Yemen analyst at the International Crisis Group, told Al Jazeera that greater cohesion within the Yemeni government camp could turn the momentum of the war away from the Houthis. “We are already starting to see some of these dynamics. Compared with earlier this year, the Presidential Leadership Council [Yemen’s UN-recognised authority] is less divided, and decision-making appears more coordinated,” Nagi said. “Saudi Arabia has also become the main regional actor on the ground, working more closely with the different anti-Houthi factions,” he added. “That puts the Yemeni government in a better position than before and could make things more difficult for the Houthis.” “But the outcome will depend on how that conflict is managed. If the Yemeni government approaches a military campaign against the Houthis differently, with better coordination and a unified strategy, it could put real pressure on the Houthis and shift the balance of power on the ground,” Nagi said. Marwan Ali Noman, a senior fellow at the Washington Center for Yemeni Studies told Al Jazeera the emergence of an anti-Houthi tribal alliance in al-Jawf in northern Yemen east of Sanaa could be a major concern for the rebels. The unity of military forces behind the government and growing international concern over Red Sea security – particularly after Houthi threats to shipping in the Bab al-Mandeb strait – have all strengthened the position of anti-Houthi forces, he said. “[These developments] could improve [anti-Houthi forces’] ability to achieve territorial gains should the recent escalation develop into any kind of confrontation,” Noman told Al Jazeera.
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