How did prediction markets like Polymarket get so big? | The Global Story

Key points· Video

• What is a prediction market and why are so many people using them?
• On prediction markets, including Kalshi and Polymarket, people are placing sometimes huge wagers on questions ranging from the sublime (‘will Jesus Christ return by the end of the year?’) to the very serious (‘will the US invade Iran?’).
• Gambling is restricted across many US states but prediction markets are not classified as gambling.
• Their rapid rise over recent years speaks – some say – to an increasing nihilism among young men in particular, who feel they may as well try to profit from world events they cannot control.
• Supporters say prediction markets are a smart way to make money.