Rubio odds for GOP 2028 nominee close to overtaking Vance on Kalshi
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office, with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio standing behind him, at the
U.S. President Donald Trump speaks in the Oval Office, with Vice President JD Vance and Secretary of State Marco Rubio standing behind him, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., April 23, 2026. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is seen as increasingly likely to be the GOP nominee in 2028, according to traders on prediction market platforms.
While Vice President JD Vance is still favored by traders on Kalshi, his odds have slipped to just 33% on Monday from around 50% on Jan. 1. Rubio, meanwhile, has risen to 30% from around 12% odds. Vance was seen as the heir to President Donald Trump's "Make America Great Again" movement, considering his high-profile role in the administration as formally second in command.
However, Trump has reportedly cast doubts about whether he views Vance as his successor, as most recently detailed by a report from The New York Times over the weekend. The Times said that Trump brings up Vance's initial opposition to the war in Iran
when musing over his candidacy. Rubio's odds have risen throughout the year, but have sharply increased around the initiation of key military operations, including the capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January and the start of the war with Iran in late February.
The BriefWire