Sensex sinks over 2,000 points in 5 days. How scary do the charts look for next week?
Indian equities head into next week with a critical support level under siege after five straight sessions of selling erased 2,092 points from the Sensex
Indian equities head into next week with a critical support level under siege after five straight sessions of selling erased 2,092 points from the Sensex and dragged the Nifty to its lowest close since June 12. With the Nifty at 23,767, a breach of 23,600 could trigger a severe correction, while any rebound may struggle near 24,000-24,200.The Nifty lost another 102 points on Friday, extending its decline for a fifth consecutive session. Investor sentiment remained subdued as Brent crude surged above $100 a barrel following a fresh escalation in the Middle East, reviving concerns over inflation and the domestic economy.Disappointing quarterly earnings from select large-cap companies and continued weakness in the rupee also weighed on sentiment. The dollar-rupee exchange rate held near 96.55, while surging energy costs and persistent supply-chain concerns added to market volatility.The charts now point to a sharp deterioration in the short-term setup. Rupak De, senior technical analyst at LKP Securities, said the Nifty slipped out of its consolidation on Thursday before follow-up selling took it to 23,600 on Friday. The index has also fallen below its 50-day exponential moving average, confirming a new short-term downtrend.“The weekly chart looks more scary,” De told ET Markets.
Over the past four weeks, the Nifty has repeatedly failed to move above its 50-week exponential moving average as selling remained strong at higher levels and buying support stayed fragmented.Also Read | MTF risk grows as investors borrow record Rs 1.36 lakh crore to buy stocks. What happens if the market falls?For traders, 23,600 has emerged as the most consequential level for next week. “A fall below 23600 might trigger a severe correction, as investors would be running away, putting the Nifty at greater downside risk,” De said.On the upside, 24,000 has become the line of polarity. The broader trend is likely to remain weak unless the index reclaims that level, according to De.Friday’s sharp recovery from the intraday lows, however, offers a limited counterpoint to the bearish weekly structure. Nagaraj Shetti, senior technical research analyst at HDFC Securities, said the Nifty formed a sizable green candle at the lows, signalling the emergence of some buying interest.The index is positioned at the crucial 23,600 support, which coincides with the opening upside gap of June 15 and an ascending trend line. That creates the possibility of a near-term relief rally even though the short-term trend has weakened sharply.Shetti expects the Nifty could bounce toward the immediate resistance at 24,200 next week before coming under pressure again.
The BriefWire