Resumption of oil exports: Will Yemen recover its economic lifeline?
The announcement by the head of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad al-Alimi, to resume oil exports starting July 20 following a halt that began in
The announcement by the head of Yemen’s Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad al-Alimi, to resume oil exports starting July 20 following a halt that began in late 2022 has revived hope that the Yemeni government’s most important source of foreign currency will be restored. The government, struggling economically and facing continued Houthi rebel control over Yemen’s northwest, needs the money – and has pledged to direct the revenues towards paying salaries, improving services, and supporting economic stability. However, the flow of oil from Yemen’s fields to global markets does not depend solely on a decision made by politicians; it requires creating a security environment, after years of war, that allows for the protection of facilities, pipelines and ports, in addition to restoring the confidence of shipping and insurance companies, as well as international buyers. With Yemen’s war threatening to escalate after a four-year period of calm, the stability the country needs to resume oil exports may be elusive. The export test Yemen has proven oil reserves estimated at about three billion barrels, primarily concentrated in the Masila, Marib and Shabwa basins. While the United States Energy Information Administration (EIA) indicates that the country still holds sufficient resources for production and export, the security environment hinders their extraction and transport to global markets. Yemen’s oil production reached a historical peak of about 439,000 barrels per day (bpd) at the beginning of the millennium, but it has gradually declined due to the depletion of some old fields. This decline accelerated with the outbreak of the war in 2014 and the targeting of oil infrastructure, settling at a level of 19,000bpd in 2024, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). A report published by S&P Global estimated actual production, following the halt in exports, at about 7,000bpd to 10,000bpd in 2023 and 2024, almost all of which was for domestic use. Yemeni Minister of Oil and Minerals Mohammed Bamqaa said that export revenues would be deposited in the Central Bank as part of a government directive to bolster the state’s financial resources, pointing out that there are oil stockpiles exceeding 1.7 million barrels ready for export.
Bamqaa added that total production will initially reach about 60,000bpd. He explained that the ministry has directed oil companies to prepare timelines to increase production and develop the fields, in a way that raises production capacity by up to 25 percent during the first month after exports resume. Professor of financial economics at Hadramout University, Mohammed al-Kasadi, told Al Jazeera that while he expected oil production to meet the 60,000bpd figure mentioned by Bamqaa, the figure does not reflect the actual volume of exports, as the local market consumes about 20,000bpd to operate refineries and power plants, which makes the quantities available for export likely to hover at about 40,000bpd. Hassan Mohammed Moghalis, an expert in Yemeni affairs, told Al Jazeera that most of the fields located in government-controlled areas remain capable of production. At the forefront of these are the Masila fields in Hadramout and the al-Uqla fields in Shabwa, which represent the fundamental base for any anticipated resumption. Moghalis explained that crude oil can be transported via pipelines to Arabian Sea ports. However, Moghalis pointed out that resuming exports does not simply mean opening the valves, as some fields require maintenance and restoration after a long period of suspension. Additionally, pipelines and pumping stations require technical reviews to ensure their readiness before resuming regular operations. Market confidence Despite the importance of restarting production at the oilfields, experts believe bigger obstacles await after the oil reaches Yemen’s ports. Houthi attacks targeting export ports in Hadramout and Shabwa in late 2022 made shipping and insurance companies more wary of handling Yemeni crude, pushing up insurance costs and weakening buyers’ willingness to enter into contracts. The Houthis have conditioned the resumption of exports on them receiving a share of the revenues to cover public sector salaries. Al-Kasadi, of Hadramout University, says that the government’s success in pumping oil to the port does not automatically guarantee a successful export process.
The BriefWire