US-Saudi nuclear deal: How will it impact Middle East, US-Iran war?
Critics say the US-Saudi deal could spark a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. It's certainly not making US allies, like Israel and the
Critics say the US-Saudi deal could spark a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. It's certainly not making US allies, like Israel and the UAE, happy. And reports suggest the US may already be backtracking on the deal. After new statements by US President Donald Trump on Thursday morning, it is still unclear whether a controversial new dealwith Saudi Arabia that allows the Middle Eastern autocracy to establish a civilian nuclear program will go ahead. Trump said the deal could only progress if Saudi Arabia normalized diplomatic relations with Israel. In the recent past, the Saudi government has repeatedly stated it would only do this if the Israelis make genuine moves toward establishing a Palestinian state. With the current Israeli government, that is unlikely to happen. The deal must also be voted on by the US Congress and there's been backlash already, with critics saying it could set off a nuclear arms race in the Middle East. One of the main reasons experts are so worried is that in several years' time, the deal, as it stands now, may let the Saudis enrich their own uranium. The more uranium is enriched, the more it could potentially be diverted to make weapons. And in the past Saudi Arabian ruler Mohammed bin Salman has said that if Iran produces a nuclear bomb, then Saudi Arabia would need to have one too. The majority of the approximately 38 countries with civilian nuclear energy programs don't enrich uranium. Instead they import it. The US-Saudi deal also has regional implications, especially because it seems to have been formulated in a far less rigorous way than similar deals. During the current US-Iran war, Iran has also threatened to strike the Barakah nuclear reactor in the United Arab Emirates Image: Arun Girija/Emirates Nuclear Energy Corporation/WAM/AP Photo/picture alliance United Arab Emirates: Preferential treatment for Saudis? The less strict deal the US has made with Saudi Arabia is likely to upset the United Arab Emirates, who often compete with the Saudis for geopolitical influence.
The UAE already has a nuclear power plant, Barakah, as a result of arrangements made with the Americans back in 2009. As with almost all of the 26 nuclear cooperation agreements the US has, the UAE's deal also included what's known as an "additional protocol" signed with the International Atomic Energy Agency, or IAEA. This means the IAEA can thoroughly inspect all nuclear facilities. The UAE also agreed to forgo uranium enrichment. The Saudi deal is bilateral only — that is, just between the US and the Saudis and doesn't include the IAEA — and the Saudis may eventually be allowed to enrich their own uranium. For the UAE, nuclear power was always more about the prestige of being the first Arab nation to develop it than about military ambitions, Nour Eid told DW earlier this year. Eid is an independent researcher based in Paris who has published papers on nuclear ambitions in the Middle East for a number of think tanks. But, she pointed out, there is also a clause in the UAE agreement that stipulates that "if a regional or neighboring country has a more flexible agreement then they reserve the right to renegotiate their terms." Israel: Not only one with nuclear bomb? The Saudi-US nuclear deal will also worry the Israelis, especially if it leads to the development of a nuclear bomb in the Gulf state. That would make Saudi Arabia the only other country in the Middle East to have one. Israel has never confirmed having nuclear weapons but it's generally acknowledged that it does, probably around 90 warheads plus delivery systems. Israeli politicians see the Saudi deal as a threat and say their wishes have been ignored. "Every military nuclear program begins with a civilian one," former Israeli defense minister Avigdor Lieberman warned. Israel is one of only four UN member states that have not signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty but observers say its secret nuclear program is based in the desert near the city of Dimona Image: Ahmad Gharabli/AFP The Saudis have lobbied for their own civilian nuclear program for years and, at one stage, possible US-Saudi cooperation on this was a seen as a foreign policy sweetener: If Saudi Arabia, often perceived as a leader of the Islamic world, agreed to normalize diplomatic relations with Israel, it would get nuclear technology from the US.
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