My guide to the IPOs of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic — including the one I really want to buy
A couple of years ago, I hit it big at the ponies in an obscure northern track. I met one of the executives there. We
A couple of years ago, I hit it big at the ponies in an obscure northern track. I met one of the executives there. We took some swell pictures and we now exchange holiday greetings. Out of character, I received a text from him this week. He wants to buy some SpaceX no matter what. Not that long after, a guard near the New York Stock Exchange stopped me. He said he wanted to know how much SpaceX he should buy. Then my colleague in the gardening business was puzzled over the notion of what might be worth sacrificing to make room. Microsoft? Salesforce? Logical choices, save for the big Friday manipulation in those stocks that was so enjoyable for those of us with these positions. Let's step back for a second, though.
There's not one, but three expected deals that will define 2026 and maybe even 2027. Although, after the rapid-fire fundraise by Anthropic — a near triple from February, not easy when your prior valuation was already north of $300 billion — things seem pretty shot-gunned. Elon Musk's SpaceX is in pole position and is supposed to debut within two weeks. ChatGPT creator OpenAI may be next simply because it needs the money. It smells like more than a trillion-dollar valuation, given it can't afford to have a down round and secured a $852 billion post-money valuation in March. That could be a tall order given its heavy losses and erratic leadership. Anthropic is buttoned up and profitable. If it's the third to go public, it might be worth waiting, if only because A) it can afford to wait and B) the money from the track exec, Wall Street guard and the handyman gardener may be spent and there's no more to come.
To be sure, only SpaceX has officially released its initial public offering prospectus known as an S-1. CNBC has reported OpenAI is working on a confidential filing, while others suggest Anthropic could come public as soon as the fourth quarter. With those caveats established, let's dig into these to see if we can make sense of what will happen here. I want to go high level, using the best info that I can muster from my time doing syndicate work on IPOs — on both the sell-side and buy-side of things — and my knowledge of the current state of play from the executives nominally in charge of the process. First, no matter what you hear, see or learn, it is most likely wrong because no one — no matter how high up — has any idea how things will go.
One of the reasons is too many cooks in the kitchen. Take SpaceX. Musk has an iron hand, and he wants there to be plenty of retail participation and he wants a valuation of at least $1.8 trillion — at least for now. This is absurd. How are we defining retail? Are close associates of early investor Ron Baron's funds considered retail? How about the loyalist Cathie Wood? How much are they getting? We all thought Musk would choose Morgan Stanley as the lead bank for the IPO, given the firm stuck its neck out for the
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