Could Iran become America's next 'forever war'?
The ceasefire has collapsed, attacks are escalating and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains under threat. Is the US drifting into another open-ended conflict
The ceasefire has collapsed, attacks are escalating and shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains under threat. Is the US drifting into another open-ended conflict with no clear way out? As the United States and Iran exchange ever more powerful strikes, the June truce now is effectively dead. Air raids, drone attacks and missile launches have again become a daily feature of the conflict. The question is no longer whether Washington and Tehran are back at war, but whether the conflict is turning into an open-ended struggle that neither side can win. The war could indeed become another "forever war," said Kelly Grieco, a senior fellow with the Reimagining US Grand Strategy Program at the Stimson Center, a Washington-based think tank. The term describes conflicts that drag on for years, with repeated military action and no lasting political settlement. "You end up in this 'mow the lawn' approach, where Iranian capabilities grow up to some level. You decide that you're not willing to tolerate that level of threat, and you come back and you do another round of missile strikes and bombings. And then we repeat this cycle endlessly." No path to de-escalation US warplanes have intensified their strikes against targets across Iran, while Tehran continues to attack US positions and regional allies. Iranian forces targeted sites in several Gulf countries and again disrupted shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly a fifth of the world's traded oil and gas once passed. At the same time, Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen threatened Saudi Arabia's maritime trade routes, raising fears that a second strategic chokepoint could be drawn into the conflict. A collapsed bridge near Bandar Abbas, destroyed in US strikes targeting infrastructure in southern Iran Image: Morteza Akhoondi/Middle East Images/IMAGO Diplomatic efforts have not stopped. Iranian Interior Minister Eskandar Momeni traveled to Pakistan, one of the key mediators behind last month's ceasefire agreement, in an attempt to revive talks. But prospects for a breakthrough appear slim.
While US President Donald Trump has at times expressed interest in talks with Tehran, he voiced little enthusiasm for new negotiations, saying on Tuesday that the US had "no interest in meeting." He signaled that the US air campaign could intensify further, while Iranian officials have warned that attacks on nuclear sites could trigger another major escalation. A widening conflict What began as a limited military campaign could evolve into a war of attrition, fought through air strikes, economic pressure and recurring escalations, with no clear end in sight. US renews strikes on Iran as fighting escalates To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video "What we should expect is that if the United States continues to escalate its airstrike campaign, targeting things like railway infrastructure, bridges, major port facilities or energy facilities, Iran can and will respond in kind by using its missiles and drones to target similar facilities in the Gulf, as well as in the Levant, targeting areas in Jordan and in Syria, for example," said Megan Sutcliffe, a Middle East and Africa security analyst with the private intelligence firm Sibylline, based in London. "This tit for tat is exactly what is going to continue in the next few weeks. That pushes us closer to the worst-case scenario, a full-scale conflict resumption." Over the course of the war, Washington's objectives have appeared to shift repeatedly. Early rhetoric focused on regime change and eliminating Iran's nuclear program. Later, the emphasis moved toward degrading the country's military capabilities. Today, the most immediate goal seems to be reopening the Strait of Hormuz and securing one of the world's most important shipping routes. Iranians walk past state-backed propaganda promoting the country's drone arsenal and threatening US partners in the Gulf Image: Fatemeh Bahrami/Anadolu Agency/IMAGO Yet one question remains unanswered. If the United States has overwhelming military superiority and has carried out hundreds of strikes across Iran, why has it not been able to eliminate Tehran's ability to disrupt traffic through the strait?
The BriefWire