US tariffs ‘strengthen’ Lula against Bolsonaro’s son in upcoming elections
With Lula polling ahead and tariffs squeezing Brazil’s economy, the Bolsonaro family’s Washington strategy is faltering. A slew of United States actions against Brazil, including
With Lula polling ahead and tariffs squeezing Brazil’s economy, the Bolsonaro family’s Washington strategy is faltering. A slew of United States actions against Brazil, including a range of tariffs and sanctions on local criminal gangs, is playing into Brazilian voter sentiment ahead of the presidential elections in October. As incumbent leftist President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva seeks a fourth, non-consecutive term, he will compete against the Liberal Party’s Flavio Bolsonaro, son of former far-right President Jair Bolsonaro, who is serving a 27-year prison term. Brazil will hold the first round of the general election on October 4, with a run-off, should Lula and Flavio Bolsonaro both advance, on October 25. Lula has cast himself as a defender of Brazilian sovereignty in response to US tariffs and sanctions. Last week, the administration of US President Donald Trump announced 25 percent tariffs on many Brazilian goods, the result of a yearlong investigation that alleged Brazil’s trade practices were “unreasonable”. The US argued that Brazil unfairly favoured its state-run Pix payment system over private competitors, imposed an 18 percent tariff on US ethanol imports, and failed to enforce deforestation laws strictly enough, thereby benefiting Brazilian timber producers. The levies are part of the administration’s strategy of rebuilding its tariff wall after the Supreme Court struck down in February the emergency powers Trump had used to unleash tariffs on most trading partners. The previous tariffs of up to 50 percent on Brazil were tied to the criminal case against Jair Bolsonaro for plotting to overturn the results of the 2022 elections, which he lost to Lula. Trump had called the investigation a “witch-hunt”. A recent Quaest poll for Folha de S Paulo suggested Lula is leading Flavio Bolsonaro 45 percent to 37 percent in a second-round run-off election.
“His political movement, Bolsonarismo, is afraid that tariffs actually strengthen Lula’s support in the upcoming elections, because Brazilians are very disgusted with the US imposing tariffs,” Gimena Sanchez, director for the Andes at the Washington Office on Latin America (WOLA), said. She said that a Bolsonaro win in October would serve Washington’s broader interests. Trump’s early relationship with Bolsonaro Trump was an early and vocal backer of the elder Bolsonaro, whose 2018 rise to Brazil’s presidency drew comparisons with Trump’s political style. Before Bolsonaro’s 2022 re-election bid, Trump recorded a video endorsement, calling him “one of the great people in all of politics”. After Bolsonaro lost the race, he did not concede and questioned the reliability of Brazil’s electronic voting machines. Thousands of his supporters later stormed government buildings in Brasilia, a federal district. Prosecutors said Bolsonaro and his allies had plotted a coup to keep him in power. In July 2025, while the trial was still under way, Trump imposed the first round of tariffs on Brazil and sanctioned the Brazilian Supreme Court justice overseeing the case. “Trump has been a leading figure not only to the Bolsonaros but also to the wide range of extreme-right politicians in Latin America since his first term,” said Gustavo Blum, a Brazilian geopolitics analyst. He said the alignment was simpler in 2018, when Trump’s focus was chiefly on countering China, a significant trading partner for Brazil and other countries in the region, and the continent’s left-leaning political leaders. “Now, with the imposition and re-imposition of trade tariffs, it’s been harder for the Bolsonaros to give a perspective in which Trump is looking out for Brazilians’ interests and not only Americans’ interests,” Blum said.
The BriefWire