IPL Final toss verdict: Does choosing to bowl first really work? What history says

Key Takeaways

• RCB captain Rajat Patidar and GT skipper Shubman Gil (Pic credit: IPL) Batting first holds a narrow edge Mixed record for teams choosing to chase NEW DELHI: Royal Challengers Bengaluru captain Rajat Patidar won the toss and chose to bowl first against Gujarat Titans in the IPL 2026 final on Sunday, backing his bowlers to make early inroads on what he described as a good batting surface.The decision immediately sparked the familiar debate that accompanies every IPL final: does batting or bowling first offer the better route to the title?A look at IPL history suggests there is no overwhelming advantage either way, though teams setting a target have enjoyed a slight edge in the tournament's biggest match.In the 18 IPL finals played before Sunday's title clash, teams batting first have lifted the trophy 10 times, while chasing sides have emerged victorious on eight occasions.The numbers indicate that scoreboard pressure has often played a crucial role in finals, where nerves and high stakes can make chasing difficult even on batting-friendly surfaces.However, toss decisions tell a more nuanced story.Captains have elected to field first in eight previous IPL finals.
• Of those eight occasions, only four resulted in title-winning performances for the side that chose to chase.The first such success came in the inaugural 2008 final when Rajasthan Royals defeated Chennai Super Kings after opting to bowl.Kolkata Knight Riders repeated the feat in 2014 against Punjab, while Chennai Super Kings successfully chased against Sunrisers Hyderabad in 2018.
• CSK repeated the feat in 2023, when they beat GT in the final after choosing to chase.Several captains who opted to field first in finals have ended up on the losing side.
• RCB themselves experienced that heartbreak in 2009 when they chose to chase against Deccan Chargers and fell short.More recently, Kolkata lost to Chennai in the 2021 final after electing to bowl, while Punjab Kings suffered a similar fate against RCB in the 2025 summit clash.Patidar, however, appeared unfazed by historical trends.
• The RCB skipper said the surface was unlikely to change significantly across 40 overs and stressed the importance of staying focused on the present rather than dwelling on past results.Gujarat Titans captain Shubman Gill revealed that his side would have preferred to bat first anyway, believing there could be assistance for fast bowlers in the opening overs.With history offering only a slight advantage to teams batting first, Sunday's final is unlikely to be decided by the toss alone.