Bullion movement: Gold prices to track US–Iran peace talks, Fed signals and key data releases this week

Key Takeaways

• (Disclaimer: Recommendations and views on the stock market, other asset classes or personal finance management tips given by experts are their own.
• These opinions do not represent the views of The Times of India) In the upcoming week, gold prices will be shaped by developments in US–Iran peace negotiations, movements in crude oil rates and a series of macroeconomic data releases.
• Analysts have said that speeches by officials of the US Federal Reserve could also play a key role in shaping interest rate expectations, which in turn may guide the near-term direction of bullion prices."Momentum for precious metals such as gold and silver still looks sideways to corrective," Pranav Mer, Vice President, EBG - Commodity & Currency Research, JM Financial Services Ltd, told PTI.He further noted that attention will remain fixed on progress in peace talks between the US and Iran, with the ceasefire and negotiation timeline extended by another 60 days.
• A positive outcome, he said, could weigh further on oil and gold prices as safe-haven demand weakens.On the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures declined by Rs 3,104, or nearly 2%, to close the week at Rs 1.55 lakh per 10 grams.
• Silver also fell by Rs 4,848, or 1.8%, ending the week at Rs 2.66 lakh per kilogram.In overseas trade, Comex gold futures posted a marginal rise to settle at $4,593 per ounce, while silver edged lower to $75.87 per ounce.According to Mer, gold has remained under pressure in recent weeks due to a sharp fall in crude oil prices and easing safe-haven demand following reports of progress in US–Iran peace discussions.He added that officials from both sides have indicated a preliminary draft of the proposed agreement, although it is still awaiting approval from US President Donald Trump.Analysts said that gains in precious metals have been capped by a strong rebound in global equities, liquidation in exchange-traded funds (ETFs), and a lack of fresh bullish triggers.At the same time, ongoing concerns over persistent inflation continue to reinforce expectations of a hawkish stance from major global central banks, limiting the appeal of assets such as gold.However, downside pressure in bullion was partly offset by bargain buying at lower levels, sustained demand amid rising tensions between Russia and Ukraine, and a stable US dollar, they added.Analysts further said that gold and silver enter the new week with investors closely watching the health of the US economy and labour market, as a busy schedule of data releases could strongly influence Fed rate expectations.