What past patterns and current concerns indicate about the upcoming bypolls
In India’s electoral landscape, byelections are routinely held when either Assembly or Lok Sabha seats become vacant and a general election in the State, in
In India’s electoral landscape, byelections are routinely held when either Assembly or Lok Sabha seats become vacant and a general election in the State, in case of an Assembly seat, or Lok Sabha, in case of a Lok Sabha seat, is due only after six months of the seats falling vacant. While some of these bypolls get significant attention, most of them go unnoticed. At present, byelections are being held in three Assembly constituencies — Bankipur in Bihar, Daita in Madhya Pradesh and Manjalpur in Gujarat. While there is hardly any discussion about the event in Gujarat, the Daita and Bankipur byelections have hogged the limelight for different reasons. The two Assembly seats have generated a lot of interest but that interest may be short-lived as the ruling party seems to be the preferred choice of a large number of voters in the respective States. What does the evidence indicate? A steady pattern The evidence clearly indicates that the ruling party of the State remains the most preferred choice amongst a very large number of voters during the byelection. During the past five years, byelections have been held for 153 Assembly seats across various States.
Of them, 119 Assembly seats were won by the ruling party or the ruling coalition, accounting for a 78% success rate, while the Opposition party or Opposition coalition candidate managed to win only 34 seats, which account for a success rate of 22%. There has been a consistent pattern during the past five years. In 2026, before the current cycle of polls, byelections were held in seven Assembly constituencies and all the seats were won by the ruling party/collation of the State. In 2025, byelections were held for 15 Assembly seats, of which nine were won by the ruling party/coalition in the State, while six Assembly seats were won by the Opposition parties. The year 2024 was no different: byelections were held for 86 Assembly seats, of which 69 seats were won by the ruling party/coalition and 17 seats were won by the Opposition parties/coalition. A similar pattern was observed in 2023, when 17 byelections were held, of which 12 Assembly seats were won by the ruling party/collation and five seats were won by Opposition party candidates. In 2022, byelections to 28 Assembly seats saw the ruling party/coalition winning 22 seats and the Opposition parties winning just six.
It is true that the upcoming byelections in Daita and Bankipur have generated political interest, especially when the ruling BJP changed its candidate for the Bankipur seat, and faced protests from its workers in Daita over the denial of the seat to Narottham Mishra. Centres of attention For the Daita seat, the BJP decided to field Ashutosh Tewari instead of Mr. Mishra, a popular party leader and former Home Minister in the State. For the Bankipur seat, the party had first declared Abhishekh Kumar Sinha as the candidate but he declined to contest, stating personal reasons. Then, the ticket was given to Niraj Kumar Sinha. The Bankipur seat has also hogged the limelight as Prashant Kishore, the leader of Jan Suraaj Party, is making his electoral debut from there. It is important to note that while Mr. Kishore himself did not contest, his party made its debut during the 2025 Assembly elections in Bihar and failed miserably, drawing a blank with just 3.5% vote share. Another point of significance is that the two byelections are in the limelight not because the Opposition has fielded important candidates and that might lead to interesting electoral battles in these constituencies.
The BriefWire