Another oil shock loading for India? How Red Sea disruptions may Russian crude supply
Like the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a strategically important maritime shipping route. Why Bab el-Mandeb is important The Houthis threat Saudi
Like the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a strategically important maritime shipping route. Why Bab el-Mandeb is important The Houthis threat Saudi Exports Via Red Sea On The Rise Why is Bab el-Mandeb Strait important for Saudi Arabia & global crude supply? The crucial energy bottlenecks at the centre of the Middle East crisis What it means for India In March 2026, India was faced with an unprecedented oil supply and price shock. Four months from then, India has managed to successfully secure its crude supplies through a diversified procurement basket relying mainly on Russian crude to tide over the energy security situation.However, even as the Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue, India is now faced with the prospect of a fresh oil shock - and this time the impact may not be limited to Middle East supplies.Iran-backed Yemeni group, the Houthis, have threatened a maritime blockade on Saudi Arabia. What this essentially means is that Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports are set to be hit. And India which gets a big portion of its crude imports from the Middle East country, is now staring at fresh supply disruptions amid Strait of Hormuz closure.The Houthis have said that the blockade is in response to what the group has described as Saudi Arabia's siege of Yemen's capital. The move comes at a time when the world is still recovering from the Strait of Hormuz supply shock that sent crude oil prices soaring globally.Even as the US-Iran conflict continues, crude oil prices have settled back to levels below $100, but persistent Hormuz disruptions and now the possible choking of Saudi Arabia’s oil exports may send them into an upward spiral again.The move adds to mounting concerns over energy supplies from the Middle East. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz - through which roughly one-fifth of the world's oil moved before the US-led conflict with Iran - remains close to a halt.
Any disruption to traffic through the Red Sea, which Saudi Arabia currently relies on for the bulk of its crude exports, would hence further deepen the conflict's impact on global oil trade.Following the outbreak of the war and Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia rerouted its crude exports through the Red Sea port of Yanbu.According to a Bloomberg report, shipments from the port were at a record 4.19 million barrels a day last month - a fact that has helped cushion the impact on global oil supplies. However, the route remains vulnerable because tankers using it are exposed to attacks by Houthis, who have previously targeted commercial shipping in the Red Sea.Like the Strait of Hormuz, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is a strategically important maritime shipping route, and it has gained particular importance for Saudi Arabia since the US-Iran conflict as an alternate route to the Hormuz. With the Strait of Hormuz closed, Saudi Arabia has been directing a lot of its crude exports via the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, and India has been a major recipient of these shipments.The Bab el-Mandeb Strait is at the southern entrance to the Red Sea and connects the Indian Ocean with the Suez Canal. Its name means ‘Gate of Tears’ in Arabic - symbolic of the treacherous waters through which the ships make their way.It is situated between Yemen on the eastern side and Djibouti and Eritrea on the western side. Until a few years ago, the Bab el-Mandeb Strait saw 15% of the global seaborne trade facilitated through it. Ships transiting through it usually carry crude oil, LNG, grains and consumer goods.However, traffic has fallen through it sharply since 2023 when the Iran-backed Houthis launched regular attacks on commercial vessels in the Red Sea. This forced many ships to reroute around the African continent.At present, ships passing through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait do not pay any transit fee. However, Lloyd's List reported in April that the Houthis are examining proposals to levy tolls on vessels using the waterway, following Iran's proposal to introduce similar charges in the Strait of Hormuz.For India the impact may be multifold, depending on the severity of the disruptions and the length of the conflict.As the data quoted above suggests, Saudi Arabia has been one of the top three suppliers of crude oil for India since the US-Iran conflict began.
The BriefWire