Tropical depression forecast: Florida, Alabama, Mississippi and Louisiana face heavy rain, storm threat

Published 19 July 2026 · us

The US Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for parts of the Florida Panhandle, warning that the system is expected to strengthen

The US Hurricane Center (NHC) has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for parts of the Florida Panhandle, warning that the system is expected to strengthen into a tropical storm within the next 24 to 48 hours while bringing heavy rain, storm surge and possible flash flooding along the Gulf Coast. Here's what you need to know. Where is Tropical Depression Two now? As of 10 a.m. CDT (1500 UTC) Sunday, the center of Tropical Depression Two was located About 155 miles (250 km) south of Panama City, Florida Near 28.0°N, 85.3°W Moving north-northwest at 2 mph (4 km/h) The depression has Maximum sustained winds: 30 mph (45 km/h) Minimum central pressure: 1011 mb According to the NHC, the system has only recently developed a well-defined low-level circulation after several days as an area of low pressure over the Gulf. Why did the NHC classify it as a tropical depression? Forecasters said the disturbance has become organized enough to receive a tropical cyclone designation.

"The area of low pressure... has now developed a well-defined low-level circulation," the NHC said. However, the agency noted that the storm remains relatively weak. "The convective activity remains patchy... The circulation is sprawling and still weak." Which areas are under a Tropical Storm Watch? The NHC has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for Ochlockonee River to the Florida-Alabama border A Tropical Storm Watch means tropical storm conditions are possible within the next 36 to 48 hours. Forecasters also warned that additional watches could be issued for parts of Alabama Mississippi Louisiana Texas over the next day or two. Will it become a tropical storm? Yes—according to the current forecast. The NHC expects gradual strengthening, with Tropical Depression Two likely becoming a tropical storm Sunday night or Monday. Forecast intensity includes Sunday night: 35 mph Monday: Tropical storm with 40 mph winds Tuesday: Around 45 mph Wednesday: Up to 50 mph (60 mph gusts) Thursday: Remaining a 50 mph tropical storm before moving inland and gradually weakening Forecasters cautioned that strengthening could be slower than usual because of Dry air surrounding the storm Northeasterly wind shear A broad and poorly organized circulation The amount of strengthening later in the week will depend largely on how much of the storm remains over warm Gulf waters instead of moving inland.

Where is the storm expected to go? The depression is moving very slowly. The forecast calls for Slow north-northwest movement through Monday A turn toward the west or west-northwest by midweek Movement near or along the northern Gulf Coast Current projections indicate the system could eventually track toward coastal Louisiana before moving inland toward Texas later in the week. The NHC noted that forecast confidence remains lower than usual because small track changes could significantly alter the amount of land interaction. What are the biggest threats? -Heavy rainfall Rainfall is expected to be the most widespread hazard. Forecast totals include 2 to 4 inches across much of the eastern and central Gulf Coast Locally up to 8 inches Areas expected to receive heavy rain include Western Florida Southern Alabama Mississippi Louisiana The NHC warned that this rainfall could produce flash flooding, especially in urban areas and locations with poor drainage. Tropical-storm-force winds Tropical storm conditions are possible across the Florida Panhandle beginning late Monday.