Who Knew First? $600,000 Wagered On US-Iran Ceasefire, Raising White House Insider Trading Questions
Who Knew First? $600,000 Wagered On US-Iran Ceasefire, Raising White House Insider Trading Questions Published By, Last Updated: July 19, 2026, 15:50 IST Betters are
Who Knew First? $600,000 Wagered On US-Iran Ceasefire, Raising White House Insider Trading Questions Published By, Last Updated: July 19, 2026, 15:50 IST Betters are waging steep bets on the outcome of the US-Iran was. This has sent alarm bells ringing in White House concerned about insider trading. Rapid Read Amid steep bets being waged on the outcome of the US-Iran war, White House is weary of insider trading. (Representational image) Alarm bells are ringing inside the White House as online betting tied to the ongoing U.S.–Iran war draws scrutiny. Officials are now examining whether insider information may have leaked into prediction markets. According to a Wall Street Journal report, concerns have been raised that sensitive government knowledge may have influenced wagers on platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Lawyers inside the administration reportedly believe it may be impossible to trace the source of leaks, especially given anonymous accounts on such platforms. The spike in betting activity began soon after the war broke out in February.
By March, a memo was circulated to White House staff explicitly banning the use of non-public information for financial gain. Ceasefire Bet Triggers Probe The situation escalated after a high-stakes bet on a potential April ceasefire raised red flags. US President Donald Trump announced a ceasefire with Iran on April 8, validating the prediction. Blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps found that three anonymous Polymarket accounts earned over $600,000 by correctly betting on the outcome. The scale and accuracy of the wagers intensified suspicions of insider involvement. The controversy deepened when Gabriel Perez, a teleprompter operator for Trump, came under investigation. Authorities are probing whether he used early access to presidential speeches to place bets. The White House confirmed he is being investigated by regulators after reportedly making more than $100,000 through wagers. Press secretary Karoline Leavitt said the administration had no prior knowledge of Perez’s activities. She stressed that strict ethics rules prohibit such behavior and added that Trump was angered by the possibility of insiders profiting from privileged information.
Perez, who has worked with Trump since 2016, has now been placed on unpaid leave. Pattern Extends Beyond War Bets The issue may not be isolated. Reports suggest similar betting patterns emerged during the 2024 election cycle. Some wagers were allegedly based on advance knowledge that Trump would pick JD Vance as his running mate. Prediction markets have seen massive volumes. Election-related bets alone have crossed $325 million on Polymarket. Meanwhile, Kalshi has blocked dozens of campaign staffers from betting on their own races to prevent conflicts of interest. Kalshi says it actively monitors suspicious trading. A spokesperson noted that teams operate round the clock to detect unusual patterns and investigate potential violations. The growing overlap between politics, markets and real-time information is now raising fresh concerns about transparency—and who gets access first. News18 Newsletter Handpicked stories, in your inbox A newsletter with the best of our journalism submit Key Questions Answered Could prediction markets be banned for political events?
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