Germany’s 5,000 heat deaths: What the numbers reveal
More than 5,100 people in Germany died from heat-related causes this year until the end of June, the Robert Koch Institute reports. But how can
More than 5,100 people in Germany died from heat-related causes this year until the end of June, the Robert Koch Institute reports. But how can researchers prove that someone died because of soaring temperatures? A heatstroke begins with headaches, dizziness and loss of awareness. The body’s regulation system fails, causing body temperature to rise to life-threatening levels. Multiple organ failure and death can follow. But doctors rarely record deaths that can be directly attributed to heat. According to Germany’s Federal Statistical Office, an average of 21 such cases were recorded each year between 2004 and 2014. The 5,120 heat-related deaths in Germany in 2026 through June 28, published by the Robert Koch Institute (RKI), is therefore an estimate. But that does not mean the figure is pulled out of thin air. "It is based on a statistical correlation," says Alexandra Schneider, a meteorologist, epidemiologist and deputy director of the Institute of Epidemiology at Helmholtz Munich. Statistical link between temperatures and deaths This estimate was found by comparing death figures collected by Germany’s Federal Statistical Office with temperature trends over a given period measured by the German Weather Service. In the final week of June alone, around 23,600 people died. The weekly average temperature — meaning the average daytime and nighttime temperature over the course of a week — was 26 degrees Celsius. The RKI assumes that heat-related deaths occur from a weekly average temperature of 20 degrees Celsius onward.
How to survive heat waves in the city To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video The number of deaths in that final week of June was nearly 30% higher than the average for comparable periods in previous years, when around 18,200 people died. To estimate the number of heat-related deaths, researchers modeled how many deaths would have occurred under conditions with temperatures of no more than 20 degrees Celsius. Researchers also adjust for certain confounding factors, Schneider explains. Using this method, the RKI estimates that there were 5,120 heat-related deaths — with 4,310 of those occurring in the final week of June alone. Heatwaves are particularly challenging for people who work outdoors Image: Benjamin Westhoff/dpa/picture alliance Alexandra Schneider considers the estimate plausible and says she expected a figure of this magnitude. In the past, the epidemiologist has criticized the RKI’s methodology. "If temperatures fluctuate sharply within a week, using a weekly average can smooth out those extremes and lead to an underestimation of deaths," she explains. "This time, however, it was consistently hot." More deaths linked to cold than heat in Germany and Europe The same applies to cold-related deaths as to heat-related deaths: they are estimates based on a plausible statistical link. During colder months, respiratory illnesses become more common. Cold temperatures also contribute to cardiovascular diseases, just as heat does, explains epidemiologist Schneider.
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