War and weather threaten India's kharif season

Key points

• As India heads into the kharif sowing season, multiple risks have emerged.
• According to the Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency, concerns over a below-normal monsoon, the possible development of El Nino conditions, and fertiliser supply disruptions linked to the US-Iran war could affect agricultural output, rural demand and food prices in FY2027. These factors may weaken the agriculture sector growth, currently estimated at three per cent for FY27. Read Full Story WEAKER MONSOON CONCERNS The India Meteorological Department has forecast a below-normal monsoon for 2026. The agency said weaker rainfall could hurt kharif sowing, reduce reservoir replenishment, and increase pressure on food inflation.
• It also highlighted that possible El Nino conditions during the monsoon season might affect agricultural production.
• The Indian Council of Agricultural Research found that many districts had lower rainfall during El Nino years, especially in July and August, which are crucial months for kharif crops.