US or Iran: Who will win the Hormuz endurance game?

Tehran is betting that its sanctions‑hardened economy can outlast the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Washington, meanwhile, is contending with elevated oil prices, renewed inflation pressure and rising global recession risks. Deadlocked, dysfunctional and dangerous. That is how the Strait of Hormuz standoff is increasingly being described. Now approaching its fourth month, the crisis off Iran's coast is marked by mutual blockades. Tehran has been charging ships up to $2 million (€1.73 million) for safe passage through the strait, while the United States enforces a naval embargo, turning back vessels carrying Iranian oil exports. These competing blockades have failed to deliver decisive results. Some Iranian ships continue to slip through, while several Asian shipping firms have agreed to pay tolls, despite such fees violating international maritime law. Fragile negotiations between the US and Iran to reopen Hormuz have, meanwhile, stuttered several times, sparking the risk of escalation into a wider regional conflict. Which side will fold first? Yet, despite Pakistan-led mediation efforts and a proposed one-page memorandum aimed at ending hostilities and reopening Hormuz, neither side appears ready to blink first. Dania Thafer, executive director of the Washington-based think tank Gulf International Forum (GIF), believes Trump’s on-off military threats — intended to increase its leverage over Iran — may have backfired. "The Iranian response suggests the opposite," Thafer told DW. "They interpret it as the US lacking the will to escalate the war." US President Donald Trump is facing increasing pressure both at home and abroad to avoid further military action, with Gulf allies such as Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar urging restraint. Surging oil prices and rising domestic inflation are adding political heat ahead of the US mid-term elections in November. Can Iran control flow of data along with flow of oil? To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Iran's oil revenues depleting fast Iran, meanwhile, is losing some $435 million per day in trade, nearly two-thirds of which comes from exports of mainly crude oil, Miad Maleki, senior fellow at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), estimated in April. This means that with the US blockade stretching to 39 days on Friday, Iran's public finances have already suffered an estimated $17 billion loss. According to Maleki, this is in addition to around $144 billion in economic damage caused by US-Israeli strikes in the first weeks of the war. Burcu Ozcelik, senior research fellow at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), thinks Iran may have gained "outsized leverage" through its missile attacks on shipping and Gulf neighbors, but it is now being "hit hard" by the disruption to its own oil exports. "Despite Tehran's bluster about regime resilience, its economy is not blockade-proof," Ozcelik told DW. Gulf states caught in the crossfire Experts describe the standoff as a dangerous waiting game. Both the US and Iran believe they have time on their side. However, the Gulf states are far more risk-averse and economically exposed. Their frustration with the deadlock has hardened into coordinated pressure for a diplomatic breakthrough. Gulf states have urged Trump to shelve plans for further strikes and give negotiations more time. In private, they've warned that a frozen conflict would jeopardize plans to transition their economies away from fossil fuels. Gulf states have been spending hundreds of billions of dollars on ambitious industrial and tourism projects. They strongly support the Pakistan‑mediated talks and a joint US–UN initiative to reopen the Strait without Iranian tolls or control claims. How the Iran war has ruined Saudi Arabia's 'Vision 2030' To view this video please enable JavaScript, and consider upgrading to a web browser that supports HTML5 video Iran seeks regional security hegemony As a power that sees itself reshaping the Middle East region, Iran is also using the war to push for long‑term gains. GIF's Thafer thinks Iran's ambitions go well beyond war victory and seek to "flip the regional order in its favor" in the long term. "They want the Gulf states to expel the US and bring the region under an Iranian security framework," she told DW, adding that this approach is not in the interest of Gulf states, despite their frustrations with Washington. While remaining cautiously optimistic about a breakthrough in talks, Washington insists on a full reopening of the Strait, an end to all Iranian nuclear enrichment activity and no sanctions relief without major concessions. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told NATO foreign ministers gathered in Sweden on Friday that "we have to have a Plan B" if Iran does not compromise. "The challenge is that there is no magic target that the US can hit that will immediately translate into regime surrender," Ozcelik tol